The next rung:

Washington Nationals: Still stuck in ownership limbo, they have little chance to make significant improvements this offseason, and their offense needs significant improvement to become merely average.

Los Angeles Dodgers: Eric Gagne doesn’t like what he sees here, and neither do we.

San Diego Padres: Great city, great weather, great park. But a changing front-office situation will precede a changing team on the field — one built more around pitching, defense and gap power to fit Petco Park. It’s going to take more than an offseason to pull it off, however.

Milwaukee Brewers: Ned Yost and Co. are putting together a nice turnaround with the right atmosphere and some excellent young talent. The first winning season since 1992 is in store.

Toronto Blue Jays: The returns to health of Roy Halladay and Ted Lilly, plus an extra $20 or so million per year available in the payroll will equal the AL’s most-improved team in 2006.

Minnesota Twins: The long pipeline of talent from within has run a bit dry on the offensive side of things. The payroll isn’t going up, so they have to get more from their young hitters, especially Justin Morneau.

San Francisco Giants: Barry Bonds is running short on chances, with one, maybe two remaining. The surrounding cast doesn’t inspire any thoughts of a title, but all it takes in the NL West are a couple of tweaks, and GM Brian Sabean can get that done.

Florida Marlins: You have to like Joe Girardi getting an opportunity to manage. But with A.J. Burnett following Carl Pavano out of South Florida, that leaves only Dontrelle Willis and Josh Beckett — and that probably isn’t enough for a repeat of 1997 and 2003.

Slide show   The Week in Sports Pictures The Giants on top of the football world, getting ready for the London Olympics and more. more photos

Chicago Cubs: Two curses have been broken, so now you’re thinking the Cubs are next, right? But for that to happen, all GM Jim Hendry needs to do this winter is come up with a leadoff hitter, at least two outfielders, possibly a new middle-infield combination and a setup man or two.

Philadelphia Phillies: If the new general manager can come up with a creative solution to the Jim Thome issue, it could be a springboard to the playoffs. But if not, there is potential for clubhouse unrest. And they have to improve their rotation.

The top tier:

New York Mets: They clear Mike Piazza’s contract from the books, can use that plus more to pull off a big-time addition or two such as Manny Ramirez, A.J. Burnett or Billy Wagner, and have every right to expect more from Carlos Beltran.

Atlanta Braves: Now that Leo Mazzone is gone, there is a better chance of the consecutive division title streak ending than of winning a second world championship.

Boston Red Sox: A tumultuous offseason appears to be in store, as the front-office could be drastically altered. That uncertainty, plus the continuing Manny Ramirez soap opera and Johnny Damon’s free agency, likely could hamper efforts to add desperately needed pitching.

Houston Astros: The question marks are Roger Clemens and Jeff Bagwell, and you probably should expect at least a little decline from Craig Biggio. But they still have a top-quality pitching staff and emerging young position players.

Oakland A’s: They won 88 games in a rebuilding year, and that was without Bobby Crosby, Rich Harden, Octavio Dotel and Erubiel Durazo for long stretches. All that young talent will be a year older and better for the experience gained in 2005, so watch out. This is your sleeper pick.

New York Yankees: You have to respect the payroll advantage, and the presence of so many stars. But they have to continue to get younger, put a quality setup crew in front of Mariano Rivera, and get a center fielder.

Cleveland Indians: They are at a financial disadvantage in this crowd, but one of the league’s top pitching staffs and emerging young stars Travis Hafner, Victor Martinez, Grady Sizemore and Jhonny Peralta help close the gap. Can they take the next step — even if Kevin Millwood goes elsewhere?

St. Louis Cardinals: Nobody has been better over the last two regular seasons, and they still will have most of the necessary pieces in place. And with an expected revenue spike with the opening of the new Busch Stadium, they should be able to get what else they need.

Chicago White Sox: Repeats are getting tougher and tougher. The three-tier playoff system and more teams with more money to spend due to increased TV revenues make it so. But the Sox have the pitching staff, the manager and enough of everything else to make another run. Watch the Paul Konerko situation, though.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: Just about everything is in place for a championship: Arguably the best owner in the game, huge attendance and revenues that make a $100-million-plus payroll possible, one of the best managers and coaching staffs, an excellent pitching staff and a couple of superstars. Offense is the biggest need, but they will make a run at the top free agents, have a ton of minor-league talent to deal if necessary, and very likely could get some help from within if Dallas McPherson and Casey Kotchmann emerge. No team has won two championships in this new millennium, but look for the Angels to be the first to do so.