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White Sox defied the statistics geeks

By the numbers, Chicago never should have even been in playoffs

Image: Scott PodsednikAP
The White Sox's Scott Podsednik, who hit a triple in the third inning of Game 4 of the World Series on Wednesday, was viewed as a fraud by sabermetricians, writes columnist Bob Cook.

Nothing was more emblematic of this problem then the White Sox's preseason swap of left fielders, sending power-hitting Carlos Lee to Milwaukee for the anti-power hitter, Scott Podsednik. Forget for a moment that the deal also brought the Sox middle-relief workhorse — at least in the regular season — Luis Vizcaino, and freed up money to sign free agents such as World Series MVP Jermaine Dye.

The White Sox and their fans viewed Podsednik, an All-Star this season, as the catalyst of the offense, the team's leading hitter (at a mere .290) with the speed to steal bases and run down balls in the outfield.

Sabermetricians viewed him as a fraud. They noted that his OPS (on-base percentage plus slugging percentage) was a lowly .700 — .351 on-base percentage, and a .349 slugging percentage, with no home runs and only 25 RBIs in 507 at-bats. Lee, meanwhile, had a robust .811 OPS at Milwaukee — .324 on-base percentage, plus a .488 slugging percentage.

Meanwhile, Lee's VORP — or value over a replacement player, as measured by the number of runs he generated compared to any replacement — was 34.3. While only ninth among National League left fielders, a VORP of 34.3 would have been good for second, behind Manny Ramirez, in the AL.

On the other hand, Podsednik had a VORP of only 10.6, 10th among AL left fielders, and a lowly 25th in all of baseball. This Scottie might be fast, but he doesn't move at VORP speed.

Sabermetricians make the point that so-called "Ozzieball," manager Ozzie Guillen's run-scoring strategy he liked to call "smart ball," did not key the Sox success, not with scoring 124 fewer runs than the 865 they scored in 2004. They point to the pitching, with the Sox giving up 186 fewer runs than last year's 831.

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You wouldn't get any argument from the White Sox there. Guillen went to general manager Kenny Williams after last season and requested he build a team more around speed, pitching and defense than the live-by-the-homer, die-by-the-homer crew of previous years.

As Guillen noted after Podsednik's game-winning — gasp! — home run after Game 2 of the World Series, those teams could hit for five home runs in an inning, but then the bats would disappear.

It wasn't just the regular season where the Sox overachieved. In the postseason, the White Sox's Pythagorean won-loss record wasn't as good as the actual 11-1 they posted. It was 9-3. So at that rate, they still probably win the World Series.

In his baseball blog, Collins noted that the White Sox's statistical anomalies means "good news for the (AL) Central Division competitors" next season "because luck can't last forever." Maybe it can't, but for one year, luck apparently was enough.

Bob Cook is a contributor to NBCSports.com and a free-lance writer based in Chicago.


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