Bob Neumeier

Horse trainers watch the Weather Channel more than local news or even American Idol. Future rain storms not only impact crucial training plans but, more important, can alter track conditions on race day. Some horses love the mud; others can’t even stand up on a sloppy main track.

While handicappers take great pains to unearth “mud larks” on the main track, they underestimate the importance of moisture in grass or turf racing. Yet, the same principles hold on the turf as they do on dirt. Some love traveling over “soft” or “yielding” going; others need hard ground to hear their feet rattle to strut their best stuff.

With that as a backdrop, the 10-day forecast for the New York area is important to look at as we approach the Breeders’ Cup World Thoroughbred Championships at Belmont Park on Oct. 29. Will the main track be fast? Sloppy? Muddy?

Will the turf be firm? Soft? Yielding?

Those of us that live in the Northeast have been deluged with rain over the past few weeks. Until Thursday, turf racing has been scrapped at Belmont because of wet, dangerous conditions and a desire to keep the courses in decent shape for the Breeders’ Cup.

More rain is expected in New York this weekend, although forecasters believe the sun will shine on Cup day as well as the few days leading up to the championships. Thus, a “fast” track for the dirt seems likely barring late changes in weather patterns.

The turf however could be a different story.

‘Soft’ turf appears likely
Unless the weather turns warmer and windier, it is highly unlikely that the grass will be “firm” on Oct. 29. This is a major handicapping issue in the three races slated for the lawn — the Filly & Mare Turf, the Mile and The Turf. If a trainer has a horse that loves “soft” going, he or she hopes it pours cats and dogs this weekend.

So how do we know which horses like it firm or soft?

This is admittedly a tricky process. All we can do is peruse the past performances of each entrant and see how they performed on “off-going” — soft or yielding ground. But it is important to factor this into a horse’s overall form. For example, does one poor run on a soft course two years ago necessarily mean that the horse will run poorly on off-going on Oct. 29? Admittedly, these are variables that make our job of picking winners that much more difficult.

Let’s examine a few horses that may relish “soft” conditions and some that want a firm turf course.

In the Filly & Mare Turf, English-bred Angara seems to like the softer courses. She beat favored Megahertz on “yielding” ground in the Grade 1 Beverly D. at Arlington Park in Chicago but ran horribly on firm, hard ground in the Grade 1 Flower Bowl at Belmont.

On the other hand, Bobby Frankel’s fine mare Intercontinental seems to prefer the firmer surfaces. She was 0-for-2 in Europe on the “soft” ground and ran abysmally in July of 2004 at Saratoga in the Grade 1 Diana — a poor fifth as the 4-5 favorite, the only time she has failed to run 1-2-3 in 12 races here in the States.

Pat Kelly’s 6-year-old mare Riskaverse is dangerous on any surface but is another who embraces the soft courses, with a 4-for-5 record on tracks with Racing Form variants of “20” or higher, which indicate soft, heavier conditions. Wonder Again, 7-for-21 lifetime on the grass, is a mare that can handle any surface.

Mile favorite handled heavy Woodbine course
In the Mile, odds-on favorite Leroidesanimaux would have been a major question mark on off-turf with few attempts on his almost flawless form. That is, until he decimated a field in the Grade 1 Atto Mile at Woodbine on heavy, “yielding” grass, winning his eighth in a row by eight lengths. Sand Springs and Singletary are total unknowns on soft ground, having competed almost exclusively on firmer conditions.

New Zealand-bred Starcraft likes the wet better than a duck. His races in Australia, New Zealand, and France on squishy, soft grass are superb. He’ll be a prime threat to the favorite if he makes the journey to Belmont for The Mile (although his connections indicate he is almost certain to run in The Classic instead).

In the grueling marathon of the Breeders’ Cup Turf, Ace, Bago, Better Talk Now, English Channel, Gun Salute, Motivator and Shirocco all would appear to relish gooey going with excellent records on softer ground.

But what about Shakespeare?

No, not The Bard himself, the horse who will take a perfect 5-for-5 record into the race. This son of BC Turf champion Theatrical has never raced on off-going, an intriguing variable in assessing his chances against the always-dangerous Europeans.

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It would then be advisable to check the running times of turf races at Belmont on Thursday and Friday of next week. If those times are on the slowish side, the chances are great that the turf will be “off” on Breeders’ Cup day — thus, improving the chances of those who relish the gooey grass.

So as you pour through the past performances of the pre-entries in the run-up to the Cup, keep an eye peeled on that Weather Channel.

Low-pressure systems could well impact the final results.