The tight race in the A.L. East will come down to a three-game series between the Yankees and Red Sox in Boston on the final weekend of the season, and it's New York that will come out on top, sending the Red Sox home for the winter.

Headed for heartbreak in Beantown
Unlike in recent years, the Red Sox and Yankees I don't feel will have the wild card to fall back on if they come up short in the division race. That's because Cleveland has been on such an unconscious run since midsummer.

Even if the Indians do not overtake the White Sox in the A.L. Central Division, I think they will come away with the wild card. And if the Indians do win the division, I think Chicago can hang on and grab the wild card over either Boston or New York.

I think the Yankees will be in first place in the A.L. East by the time they get to Fenway Park for the final three games of the regular season.

Midway through September it's the Yankees who have the momentum, and it's the Red Sox who are floundering.

The Yankees have had a terrific second half of the season, which in part is a testament to Joe Torre's managing. This season Torre has probably done the best job of managing in his career.

I could see a scenario where the Yankees will need to win only one of the three games in Boston. And if that turns out to be the case, the division is theirs as the Red Sox will not be able to manage a sweep -- even with the homefield advantage.

If the Yankees are up by one game to start their showdown with the Red Sox, I think there's a good chance of a Monday playoff to decide the division -- and that game by virtue of a coin toss earlier this month will be played at Yankee Stadium.

A new curse begins?
By winning the World Series last year, the Red Sox put to rest all the talk of the Curse of the Bambino. But it seems like this season, the baseball gods have gone back to crushing the hopes of BoSox fans.

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I don't sense there's been any complacency among the Red Sox. Rather, Boston has been hurt by several factors. Curt Schilling had ankle surgery last winter, and thus he has been able to pitch for about only half a season, and just recently returned to the rotation.

David Wells, who was brought in to help make up for the loss of Pedro Martinez to free agency, had a rough start to the season, and he has been inconsistent. Closer Keith Foulke has missed time due to injury, and hasn't been able to pitch at the level he did last season.

And the Red Sox offense isn't what it was last season. Last year the Red Sox had a relentless lineup -- one that had no holes in it. But if you look at Boston now the bottom third of its lineup is not terribly imposing.

Johnny Damon, Manny Ramirez, and David Ortiz up at the top of the lineup have really carried the Red Sox. But once past these hitters there's a little bit of breather for opposing pitchers  -- something they don't get in the Yankees' lineup.

The Yankees have become the Red Sox in the sense that it's New York's lineup that is pounding out the runs, while Boston's lacks the pop it's had in the past. The Yankees have spent an awful lot of money on players known for their big bats, and they are delivering.

Alex Rodriguez is having an offensive year that has to put him right with David Ortiz of the Red Sox as a top candidate for A.L. MVP. I feel you can make as good a case that A-Rod deserves the MVP as you can for Ortiz to win it.

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