Poker really is simple. What do I have, what does he have, and what will he do with it?

The basic way in which you put your opponent on a hand (what’s he got?) is to estimate the range of hands that he will start with and then narrow the range based on the betting as the hand progresses.

I describe it as “putting your opponent in a box.” As the hand progresses you make the box smaller and smaller until you know within a very small range what your opponent is holding — you have him in a very small box. This skill takes a certain natural aptitude and a great deal of practice. You must learn to trust yourself.

The easiest and cheapest way to practice is to predict what cards your opponents are holding after you have folded. You are sitting at the table anyway; make use of the time and practice figuring out “what’s he got?” Observe the hand, shrink the box, and check your results at the showdown.

Along with figuring out what your opponents have, you must figure out how they play. Some players, for instance, will always bet a flush draw while others will always check-and-call with a four-flush. Some players will never fold top pair in hold’em; others will routinely fold top pair if confronted with a lot of aggression. Some players will raise once with top pair; other players will three-bet or cap the betting with top pair. It is impossible to separate “what’s he got” from “what will he do with it.” It is you knowledge of his starting hand range, coupled with his betting pattern that allows you to “shrink the box.”

The difference between world class players and the rest of us
Not long ago a local player asked me: “What do those guys know that we don’t know.” The “those guys” he was referring to are the players that he is regularly seeing on TV: Howard Lederer, Paul Phillips, Gus Hansen, Phil Ivey, T.J. Cloutier, Chris Ferguson, Phil Hellmuth, Erik Seidel, Johnny Chan, etc.

Once again, go back to the original hypothesis: math defines the most profitable play you can make in a given situation if you know all the variables. What “those guys” do better than your average middle-limit Vegas pro or low-limit local fish is accurately define the variables. What “those guys” do is accurately put their opponents into very small boxes and then apply the right tools (raise, call, bet, or fold) to crush the box in question.

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Simple. To improve your results all you have to do is to improve your ability to answer this question: “What’s he got and what will he do with it?” Then having learned to accurately define the variables, you must improve your understanding of the situation in which you find yourself.

I frequently overhear conversations in which little-skilled low-limit players criticize what appears to them as poor play on the part of the world-class World Poker Tour players. In almost every case, the criticism is wrong. It is mistaken because the little-skilled low-limit player in question does not understand the situation in which the world class player finds himself. What looks to him to be a bad play is, in fact, the correct tool being applied to a very small box.

In the third and final installment I will explain what I mean by “math defines the most profitable play.” In any event, if you are looking to improve your results you can work on the accuracy with which you define the variables.

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