Poker made simple: What’s he got?
Countless questions abound when cards fall, not all answers are simple
This is the second of three columns that I have audaciously titled “Poker made simple.” In truth, I think that this series demonstrates that poker is simple on the surface and underneath the still waters, very complex. The basic question is always simple: “Should I raise, call, bet, or fold?” The questions you might consider to answer this simple question are very numerous and difficult.
What are the variables?
In the first installment in this series I explained a simple truth about poker: math defines the most profitable play you can make in a given situation if you know all the variables. Forgetting about math for a moment, what are the variables? What questions could you consider when deciding to answer the simple basic question: “Should I raise, call, bet, or fold?” Off the top of my head I came up with a short list of twenty, the answers to which might affect the outcome of a poker hand:
How many opponents am I facing? What are my cards? What is the best possible hand? How likely am I to have the best hand? Has the player in seat three been drinking? Have I been drinking? How long has the player in seat seven been playing? How long have I been playing? Is the player in seat six playing a higher limit than she is accustomed to? Who won the last pot? How many cups of coffee has the player in seat nine had? What does the tattoo on the forearm of the player in seat 10 mean? What cards are on the flop? Does the player in seat four have more money in his wallet or is it all on the table? What does my opponent think I have? Are the players in seats one and two married to each other? Did the dealer flash a card? Does the player in seat four think “kings are running?” Is the player in seat five angry at the player in seat nine? How much will my hotel room cost me tonight?
You might think that some of these questions could not possibly affect the outcome of a poker hand. Obviously, some are more important than others, but any one of them could be important. How much will my room cost me tonight? If I have my last $200 on the table and my room costs $150 then I better not lose more than another $50 before I quit.
If that is the case then it may affect what cards I choose to play. If I am scared of losing then I will probably play tighter than I otherwise would.
Is the player in seat three drunk? Generally, when a player is drunk he plays looser than usual. Herein lays the clue as to why these questions could be important. How does anything — position, number of opponents, sobriety, anything — affect what cards your opponent will play and how he will play them? All of the questions that could affect the outcome of a hand of poker do so because they may alter the cards that you will play, or that your opponents will play. Also, they may alter how you and your opponents will play them.
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Back to the original hypothesis for a moment: math defines the most profitable play you can make in a given situation if you know all the variables. Since you know what your cards are and you know what the board cards are, the only variables you are interested in are:
(1) What are my opponent’s cards?
(2) How will he play them?
What’s he got and what will he do with it? If you have multiple opponents then you are asking yourself what each of them has and how each of them will play?
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