Garrett Lai

The 2005 Tour de France is over.

Once again, Lance is on top, his name firmly fixed in the record books with career totals of 22 stage victories, 11 time trial wins and 83 glorious days in the race leader’s yellow jersey, the coveted maillot jaune. Not only that, but this year’s Tour was the fastest on record, with Lance being the fastest man in the field. Which begs the question, should he retire now, when it looks like he could take yet another win?

The statistics are interesting to ponder. The oldest Tour winner ever was 36, but that mark was set in the era when riders would routinely stop mid-stage for lunch, each day’s race effectively neutralized until the final 50 kilometers. In the modern, post-WWII era the oldest-ever champion was Gino Bartali, at 34. And Lance is 33. More important, he was the fastest man in the Tour’s final time trial, and a very close second in the opening race against the clock, so age hasn’t seemed to slow him down.

Lance didn’t win any stages this year until the final time trial on the penultimate day. But he was dominating in the hills. Breakaway moves prevented him from winning any mountain stages (all but one, when Alejandro Valverde pipped him at the line), but when the chips were down and the overall threats materialized he not only rode his rivals into the ground—he humiliated them. So the man can still climb.

The climbs and time trials are the most critical aspects of mounting a charge on the Tour podium’s top step, because they’re the only places where a rider has no one to lean on, no help other than his own pure physical talent. The time trial is the ultimate test of performance—just how fast can a cyclist go without blowing up? Lance has proven to be a master at the discipline, with fully half his Tour stage victories coming in time trials.

Climbs are the only other aspect of Tour racing where a rider is forced to stand alone. A good team can be of immense help, controlling the field so nobody gets to the hill with a head start. And with a couple of mountain specialists to keep pace, a leader can be assured of riding at just the right rhythm and intensity to make the summit in the best possible shape. But on long climbs like those of the Alps and Pyrenees, the sustained effort, altitude and extreme gradient break down even the strongest climbers, and if the leader cracks there’s nothing a team can do to bring him back into the race.

Lance was powerful on this year’s climbs, but he was also careful. He didn’t make any big, flamboyant moves as he has before. He rode conservatively, and while there’s nothing wrong with that. It could be a sign the man is feeling his powers wane. He also didn’t win a race all year, until Saturday’s time trial—and typically, Lance has taken the top prize in at least one of his preparation races leading into the Tour. Lance himself said he was at his physical best in 2001, and we can only assume it’s been a slow decline from that apogee (but we’ve rarely seen signs of it).

The thing of it is we only see Lance’s labors in competition, and for most of us that means we see him working just three weeks in July. The man has ridden 21,112 miles in his Tour career, with many thousands more in other races.

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