The Jaguars know what they need to do to get by the Colts and into the postseason: They need to score more points. Jacksonville's defense is sound, but the offense finished 29th in the most important statistic there is: scoring. That has to change if the Jags are going to return to the playoffs because their defense isn't strong enough to hold up if the offense again averages 16.3 points a game.

The key way is to change their red-zone efficiency, or lack thereof. Last season, the Jags were tied for 30th in the NFL in red-zone efficiency, scoring touchdowns only 42.2 percent of the time. If that can be altered to get them even to the middle of the pack and everything else stays the same, they're a playoff team.

But for that to happen, quarterback Byron Leftwich must cut down on his mistakes and turnovers and improve his production. He had only 15 touchdown passes a year ago and finished 10th in the AFC in passing efficiency with a rating of 82.2. Jacksonville drafted former Arkansas quarterback Matt Jones in the first round, but not to pressure Leftwich. They believe they can convert him into a productive wide receiver and they need one because last year's No. 1 pick, Reggie Williams, was a disappointment. Williams scored only one touchdown and had only 27 receptions. Meanwhile, leading receiver Jimmy Smith is 36 but still wracked up 1,172 receiving yards and scored six times. If Williams can harness his speed and Jones can make the difficult transition from thrower to catcher, Leftwich will have weapons in the passing game to complement running back Fred Taylor.

Taylor has had injury problems, but he rushed for 1,224 yards and averaged 4.7 yards per carry. He'll hobble into the season still recovering from offseason knee surgery so who knows if this will be a year he's healthy or another one where he's limping too much of the time? If Taylor and the offense continue to struggle with scoring, a defense that was first in red zone efficiency (allowing only 18 touchdowns in 47 possessions inside the 20) and seventh in points allowed a year ago could be wasted once again.

HOT SEAT: Carl Smith. The Jaguars' new offensive coordinator is here to get the most out of Leftwich, which was not what happened a year ago under Bill Musgrave. Smith is abandoning the West Coast offense to make Leftwich more of a pocket passer, and he wants a quick-strike attack that puts defenses on their heels. Smith will give Leftwich more opportunities to go deep downfield, although to whom may be the question.

OVERHEARD: The Jaguars believe young cornerback Rashean Mathis is fast becoming a star. First tried at safety before being shifted back to his more natural cornerback position, Mathis responded with a team-high five interceptions last season. His 4.4 speed in the 40 and his great instincts make him a fast-developing shutdown corner who coach Jack Del Rio believes is only more game experience away from becoming the kind of disruptive force opposing teams have to game plan for.

OUTLOOK: Good, even if the offense doesn't improve, and ready to challenge the Colts for divisional supremacy if it does.

PREDICTION: Second.

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