Tony DeMarco

Now that we know who will have homefield advantage, it’s time to narrow down the possible World Series matchups, fully keeping in mind that at this point last season, the Houston Astros barely were visible on the playoff radar before getting all the way to Game 7 of the National League Championship Series:

National League: If there is any justice in the baseball world — besides David, of course — maybe it’s time for a second world championship for the Atlanta Braves. Their consecutive division title streak sits at a remarkable and unmatched 13, and things are setting up well for another one.

The Braves sit 11 games over .500 and 2½ games behind the Washington Nationals at the break, and they got there despite being forced by injuries to go with 10 rookies on their roster, most of whom made their major-league debuts after Opening Day. But never has there been a hint of panic in Bobby Cox’s demeanor or lineup decisions, as he finds ways to put even the greenest of players in situations in which they can best succeed.

What the Braves have been able to do without Chipper Jones, Tim Hudson, Mike Hampton and John Thomson, plus the collapse of projected closer Danny Kolb, also is a huge testament to what has to be the game’s best scouting and development system. It goes much deeper than can’t-miss types such as the Joneses, Andy Marte and Jeff Francouer, as the Braves are getting quality performances from names that weren’t so bright on the Baseball America radar such as Blaine Boyer, Kelly Johnson and Brian McCann.

And now the good news is Hudson and Hampton are expected back in the rotation at the start of the second half. Jones also will return in plenty of time to help a lineup that has been productive enough without him, scoring the third-most runs in the NL in the first half behind St. Louis and Cincinnati.

All of which is bad news for America’s new favorite underdog, Frank Robinson’s Washington Nationals, who have issues of their own to face. Namely, just how is it that they got to 16 games over .500 at 52-36 by being outscored by 361-357. That’s borderline impossible, and certainly not something that can be expected to continue through an entire season, all the Nats’ late-inning clutch hits notwithstanding.

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“That equates to about a .500 record,” one major league scout said about the Nats’ run differential. Which is probably about what you can expect from the Nats in the second half, even with Jose Vidro back in the lineup. That run total is 16^th and last in the NL, a standing that never produces a playoff qualifier, even with pitching as good as the Nats’ third-best ERA total in the NL.

RFK Stadium certainly is playing its part in deflating the numbers, but Jose Guillen is the only Nat with more than 10 homers, and the next three leading home-run hitters — Nick Johnson, Junior Spivey and Ryan Church — currently are on the disabled list.

Considering they are the only team better than four games under .500 in the weak West, the San Diego Padres also have to be part of this discussion. They also have the ace they can count on to win a big game in Jake Peavy, and he is two games behind currently injured Adam Eaton for the staff lead in victories. A healthy return by Eaton, quality starts from big-game veteran Woody Williams, plus one of the league’s best bullpens could make the Padres a threat in a short series.

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How much of a threat just might depend on what kind of production manager Bruce Bochy can get from a lineup that somehow is fifth in the league in runs despite injuries to vital cogs Mark Loretta, Phil Nevin, Dave Roberts and Ramon Hernandez, and the regression of Sean Burroughs. Roberts and Hernandez are back, and Nevin and Loretta should return shortly after the break. The Padres also beat the Cardinals three times in a four-game series in St. Louis earlier this season.

But on either side of a 20-5 run in June, the Padres are 28-36, and Eaton’s finger injury isn’t healing. And Padres general manager Kevin Towers admitted the obvious recently by saying, “Really, the Cardinals are the only National League team that has dominated.”

Yes, the St. Louis Cardinals. Defending league champion. Double-digit leader in the Central. Four games ahead of the Nationals for the league’s best record. Possessing unquestionably the game’s top hitter in Albert Pujols, arguably the best starting pitcher from last All-Star break to this one in Chris Carpenter, and four more All-Stars named Eckstein, Edmonds, Isringhausen and Rolen.

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The rotation already has three 10-game winners, when no other NL team has more than one, and nine others don’t even have one. A staff that leads the league in ERA, an offense that leads the league in runs scored, producing a plus-107 run differential, 27 runs better than anybody else in the league.

In short, it’s really hard to come up with reasons not to pick the Cardinals to get back to the World Series. And that makes anybody else — including the dysfunctional Florida Marlins, the sub-.500 Chicago Cubs and a Houston Astros roster that is tilted way too far to the pitching side — a long shot to pull off a strong second-half run.

American League: There was no better first-half story than Ozzie Guillen and Chicago White Sox. Even the most optimistic of preseason forecasts didn’t foresee the league’s runaway best record at 57-29, a nine-game lead in the Central and a dominating 26-5 intra-division record.

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