A discerning player might break even on a particular day or perhaps even lose a few dollars. But if he consistently put himself in a position to win big, and made the right plays, he’ll not lose confidence, his betting equilibrium. By putting the odds in his favor consistently, he knows it’s a matter of time before his bankroll grows significantly. He knows this doesn’t happen overnight.

Value is misunderstood term
If a horseplayer wants to number himself among the 2 percent that win consistently, he must have the conviction to make the right wager, not necessarily bet on the horse he deems the most likely winner. There are myriad ways to lose but generally one way to win. Winning horseplayers know the game is about price, not about horse.

Value is perhaps the most overused and least understood term in the modern player’s lexicon. Every handicapping hack that hangs out a shingle thinks that if a 3-1 shot goes off at 5-1 that a bet on that horse represents value. It is only value if you assess that horse would win 25 of every 100 times that particular race is run.

If the above example were valid, then a tad less than 4-1 odds would represent value. True value players should demand 20 percent more than what he believes are a horse’s true win odds. This type of overlay at least compensates for a nationally blended pari-mutuel takeout of about 20 percent. Takeout is immutable, a silent killer of bankrolls. Play any game where the pot is cut every time and it’s only a matter of time before your bankroll is eliminated.

Winning consistently at the races is an activity requiring basic handicapping skills, a dedicated work ethic, common sense, and an appreciation of the odds. Indeed, there may be more to successful betting than simply picking winners, but rocket science it is not.

Before attacking any raceday seriously, especially at Saratoga, I utilize a five-step process involving data from Daily Racing Form, Brisnet information services, Thoro-Graph performance ratings, and Equiform’s XTRAs. Because of its incorporation of pace figures, the XTRAs have taken performance ratings to the next level.

The fifth step and most significant step is the use of a proprietary price line developed by Cary Fotias and the egg-heads of Equiform. Fotias is among the professional bettors featured in the recently well-reviewed handicapping tome, “Six Secrets of Successful Bettors.”

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