Is the NBA draft a true science or just plain luck? The evidence would suggest a little bit of both. For the most part, the higher you are picked in the draft, the better your career will be. But for every Shaquille O’Neal or David Robinson, there is a Sam Bowie or Danny Ferry — both No. 2 overall picks who failed to live up to expectations.

The draft is dotted with players who came in with a heap of shining college credentials, only to spend a career in mediocrity and if they were luck — like the Spurs’ Ferry — as a role player on a winning team.

NBCSports.com takes a look back at the biggest lottery busts in the NBA draft from 1985 (the first year of the lottery) through 2001. We excluded players from the most recent drafts to give them a chance to prove themselves.

1. Chris Washburn (No. 3 overall, 1986, Golden State)
He had everything: Height, skills, athleticism. But Washburn just didn’t take much in life seriously. He barely got through school at N.C. State, then couldn’t handle the fame of the NBA. Washburn averaged 3 points and 2.4 rebounds in two seasons before he was banned from the league in 1989 following three positive drug tests.

Claim to fame: In the book Personal Fouls, which looks into academic improprieties at N.C. State under coach Jim Valvano, one teammate said of Washburn: “Chris never went to school. He'd come to some classes, but he was never there enough times to pass. But ‘V’ gets you through school if he wants to.”

Better choice: Jeff Hornacek, by Phoenix in second round, No. 46 overall.

2. Kwame Brown (No. 1 overall, 2001, Washington)
Tough call on Brown, who could still turn into a decent player, but after four miserable years with the Wizards, it’s tough not to call him a bust. After averaging 10.4 points per game last year, he regressed this season as the Wizards won their first playoff series in more than a decade without him.

On the bright side for Kwame, it took Jermaine O’Neal four years to finally get a chance to shine after being traded from the Blazers to Pacers.

Claim to fame: The first prep to be drafted No. 1 overall, Brown started just 14 games, averaged 7.1 points, 4.9 rebounds and less than half a block a game this season.

Better choice: Pau Gasol, by Atlanta (rights later traded to Memphis), No. 3 overall. (Though some would say Gilbert Arenas, selected No. 31 overall by Golden State, would be the main since he now stars for the Wizards.)

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