In great matchup, Spurs will win in six
Duncan the difference in series against Pistons
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So much is on the line for both teams, including the legacy of some great players and two outstanding coaches. The Spurs can win their third championship for coach Gregg Popovich, while Larry Brown can win back-to-back titles and be considered one of the best coaches of all time.
Let's break down the teams:
Forwards/centers
Spurs star Tim Duncan is the best player in the world. He can dominate on offense and defense, and he is very consistent, except at the free-throw line. Duncan must gain position close to the basket to quickly catch and shoot before two or more players come to defend him.
Duncan must hit open jump shots from beyond 12 feet to get Pistons center Ben Wallace away from the basket and open the lane for his teammates. Detroit will play more physical defense and send Duncan to the free-throw line early, sending the message that he will have to work for every point. If he is close to 100 percent, his teammates will get him the ball early and often to build his confidence in Games 1 and 2.
Ben Wallace is the best defensive player in the NBA and must play exceptionally well. He averaged 12.2 rebounds this season, and I expect him to pull down 20 rebounds in more than one game during the Finals. He is a liability on offense, however. He should get several opportunities to block shots by Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili, who love to attack the rim.
Rasheed Wallace is the X-factor for the Pistons. He can score 20 points per game and must attack the basket and try to get Duncan in foul trouble. If Wallace hits early three-pointers, that will force Duncan out of his comfort zone around the basket and open up more lanes for the Detroit guards. Rasheed is the ultimate sound bite and will continue to make bold comments to the media to get his teammates fired up if they drop Game 1. He has 10 years of experience in the NBA and is defining his legacy as a great player in big games.
Bruce Bowen is a great defender and never lets up while guarding the other team's best scorer. He will have to fight through the intense physical screens that the Pistons set to free up Hamilton. Bowen is a streaky scorer and must find his rhythm from behind the arc and score more than his playoff average of 4.8 ppg.
Tayshaun Prince is a great slasher who is averaging almost 15 points per game in the playoffs and is an important piece to the Detroit championship roster. He can run with any player on the Spurs and with only three years experience in the NBA he is making his second trip to the Finals. He is a smart player who isn't afraid to knock down a big shot in the clutch and I love the way he block shots when the game is on the line.
Advantage: Spurs. Duncan is a proven winner and should average 25 points per game in the Finals and play great defense. But if Detroit wins, Ben Wallace will be considered one of the best defensive players in history. The small forwards are even.
Guards
Both teams feature players who can hit open shots, attack the rim and get to the foul line. Tony Parker has gained valuable experience running Popovich's offense. If Parker has a bad game, Popovich will get in his face, and Parker should bounce back. Parker is averaging 18.7 points in the playoffs and must remain consistent while also playing great transition defense. When Detroit gets a defensive rebound, they like to move the ball quickly down court and get easy buckets. Parker will have to make sure he slows down any Piston who wants to get out on the fast break. Detroit will make Parker pay if he comes into the lane.
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