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Who will be the next Clemens?

Santana, Willis, Prior, Peavy, Sheets are best bets

Image: SantanaAP
Johan Santana of the Twins has what it takes to be the next Roger Clemens, writes columnist Michael Ventre.

After struggling with inconsistency in 2004, this year he is leading the majors in wins (7) and ERA (1.08). The difference appears to be his ability to locate his three pitches. If he can settle down and make 2005 the year he turns the corner and joins the elite, then he has nothing but loads of upside and a bright future on a perennially competitive club — assuming he stays there.

Mark Prior, Chicago Cubs
Both Prior and Kerry Wood are supremely talented young pitchers. Both have suffered from various injuries. But Prior seems to be having slightly better luck in the health realm than his Cubbies teammate. Prior had an Achilles’ problem last year, which screwed up his mechanics and led to a sore elbow. This year he’s back, seemingly at full throttle. He’s incredibly poised for a 24-year-old, and has fabulous stuff, including a fastball that often clocks in the mid to upper 90s, a curve and a change-up. He had trouble in the past locating the curveball, but seems to be improved in 2005.

One drawback for Prior having a dominating career is the anemic club he plays for. The Cubs currently are 22nd in the majors in runs scored. Prior would have to have a lot of luck, both with his own health and with the team around him, in order to fulfill his potential. But as far as pure ability, he’s in Clemens’ class.

Jake Peavy, San Diego Padres
In 2002, his rookie season, and 2003 he had ERAs of 4.52 and 4.11, respectively. Then in 2004 he made a dramatic improvement, posting a 2.27; he’s at 2.57 this year. He was 6-7 and 12-11 his first two campaigns; last year he broke through with a 15-6 record — even though he missed a month with a sore arm — and he’s 3-0 so far in ’05. In other words, this kid just keeps getting better.

An intensely focused individual, he turns 24 in two weeks but is already one of baseball’s brightest stars. He has four pitches: a fastball in the mid 90s, a slider, a curve and a change-up. And he’s slowly gaining mastery of each. His strikeout totals — he had 173 last year and 61 so far in 2005 — are testimony to that. He’s also with a team on the rise, so he’ll get help.

Ben Sheets, Milwaukee Brewers
This one is admittedly iffy. This season Sheets, 26, came off recovery from an October procedure to repair a herniated disk, and recently he’s been on the disabled list with an inner ear infection. When he isn’t dealing with infirmities, he has to cope with a lack of run support from his teammates. But in terms of pure talent, determination, poise and competitive drive, Sheets is in the Clemens mold.

Last year he posted a 12-14 mark on a bad team, but he greatly improved his ERA to 2.70 thanks to better command of all three of his pitches: fastball, curve and change-up. Sheets’ biggest hurdle in having a Clemens-like career is being stuck in Milwaukee. He signed a four-year contract extension in April, so his victory totals may be underwhelming for the immediate future as long as he stays a Brewer. To be the next Clemens, he may have to pull a Clemens and engineer a trade.

Michael Ventre writes regularly for NBCSports.com and is a freelance writer based in Los Angeles.


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