AFP - Getty Images fileThere’s no doubt that the John Shirreffs-trained Giacomo was one of the main beneficiaries of the torrid pace. He was relaxed in 18th place early while the front runners were running themselves ragged, then came bobbing and weaving through the stretch under a great ride by Mike Smith to nail Closing Argument and Afleet Alex in the final strides.
But while the effects of the fast pace on the speed brigade were evident to all, the ways in which it forced the closers to adapt are not as easy to apprehend or to measure.
In Giacomo’s case, the colt was much farther back in the Derby than typical and had to make an extended run around the turn and through the stretch to catch the leaders. According to the Daily Racing Form chart, he gained nearly 10 lengths on the leaders in the middle stages of the race, closing into what was still a very testing pace. Using the rough yardstick that every length is equal to about one-fifth of a second, that means Giacomo ran the middle quarter mile of the Derby in just a shade over 24 seconds, a solid time for any quarter mile in a route race.
No rest for the weary
But he couldn’t rest on his accomplishment. Even as he began tiring, he had to sustain that run and pick off the even-more-exhausted runners still in front of him.
In addition to the early burst, Giacomo had a wide trip that undoubtedly cost him a couple lengths and was subjected to the sort of bumping that virtually every competitor encounters in the moving melee that is the Kentucky Derby.
None of these factors is reflected in the Beyer Speed Figure (though some rival methodologies attempt to compensate for lost ground and even factors like wind speed), which may explain why some races that appear weak on paper aren’t what they seem.
There’s no need to dig into ancient history to find a good example of this.
The Santa Anita Derby, historically one of the most prestigious prep races for the Kentucky Derby, was a lowly rated affair this year. Winner Buzzards Bay earned a measly 98 Beyer figure for winning the April 9 race, far lower than the 120 given to Bellamy Road for winning the Wood Memorial and below the 108 assigned to Afleet Alex for his victory in the Arkansas Derby, the 103 Bandini received for capturing the Blue Grass Stakes, High Limit’s 102 in the Florida Derby and even the 99 earned by Coin Silver in the Lexington Stakes.
But when the dust had settled after the Kentucky Derby, four of the top six finishers were horses that came out of the Santa Anita Derby, including Giacomo.
The bottom line is that while speed figures are useful tools for evaluating horses, they’re not the final word, especially when it comes to predicting future performance. And while Giacomo and the other Derby horses may indeed turn out to be nothing special, it’s not inconceivable that one of them could turn in a monster performance that will have people singing a very different tune.
One person who needs no convincing is Tim Ritchey, who trains likely Preakness favorite Afleet Alex.
“He made a big run, and was stronger than everybody else at the end,” he said last week in describing Giacomo’s Derby victory. “So you have to give him a lot of credit.”
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