That indicates that Spanish Chestnut is in the race only to act as a “rabbit,” a horse whose sole objective is to set a fast early pace in an effort to force another front-runner — in this case Bellamy Road — out of his game plan.

While Spanish Chestnut certainly could cause big problems for Bellamy Road, who has only been behind in one of his winning races, the optimist in me says that Zito made a shrewd move Wednesday by picking the 16 hole for the colt. That virtually forced the connections of Spanish Chestnut to pick a post to his inside, and gave him a much better chance of relaxing off what figures to be a torrid pace.

If he can do that, I see Bellamy Road then blowing by that one when he begins to tire rounding the far turn and drawing off to an impressive victory. If he can’t be “rated” — or pulled back off the pace — he will likely be inhaled by the closers shortly after the field turns for home.

Though this is the biggest question surrounding the favorite, it is by no means the only one.

Steve Nesius / AP file George Steinbrenner's Yankees are struggling these days, but he might land a victory in horse racing's biggest race with his colt Bellamy Road, the favorite to win Saturday's Kentucky Derby.

Some Bellamy Road detractors also believe that the horse will almost certainly “bounce” — or regress — after the scintillating effort he put forward in the Wood.

Formerly known as the bounce theory, the phenomenon is now widely accepted as a real manifestation of a top physical effort without adequate preparation. But again, there are conflicting signs about whether it might apply in this instance.

The general guidelines suggest that a horse is likely to bounce off a top effort in just the second start after a layoff — the case with Bellamy Road.

But the ease of his victory in the Wood Memorial certainly didn’t look like a taxing effort to the naked eye: Castellano had a hard time pulling the colt up after he crossed the finish line.

And even if he were to bounce, that doesn’t make it clear whether his performance would decline enough that his rivals would be able to run him to ground.

I’ve been playing and replaying these arguments in my head for most of the week now, and I’ve reluctantly come to the conclusion that I can’t take a stand against Bellamy Road in this race despite these questions. I just can’t shake that vision of him galloping out at the end of the Wood Memorial, looking like he was ready to go around the track again.

That makes the race rough from a betting standpoint, as I can only see backing Bellamy Road at his morning-line odds of 5-2 or better and I expect him to drift down from there to 2-1 or 9-5.

If he does maintain his morning line, I’ll put $50 to win on him and box him in $5 exactas with three other horses — Afleet Alex, Bandini and Closing Argument — for a total of $80.

If he drifts downward from those odds, I’ll skip the win bet and play two $5 exacta boxes using three horses — Afleet Alex, Bellamy Road and Bandini — and a second that envisions a total pace collapse triggered by Spanish Chestnut — Afleet Alex, Bandini and Closing Argument — for a total of $60.

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