Wild-card contenders
No. 14 Wilcox (20-1, Corey Nakatani)
Linemaker Mike Battaglia made a rare error by putting such a high price tag on the winner of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile champion. This horse has suffered two brutal trips in his last two preps, running hopelessly wide and may be sneaky at a price. He is the best longshot hope in the field and I’ll likely toss him into an exacta play under the favorite (can you spell $120 payoff for the 16-14 combo?)

No. 3 Sun King (15-1, Edgar Prado)
One of the Zito Five, Sun King has been in and out. When he’s on his game, he’s very dangerous and Prado is one of the best-kept secrets in racing….tough to gauge.

No. 4 Noble Causeway (12-1, Gary Stevens)
I will seek out Mr. Battaglia and offer him a head-to-head bet….Wilko vs. Noble Causeway because I know Mike likes the Florida Derby runner-up. Sure, he’s well-bred and has room to improve but his failure to appreciably gain on High Fly at Gulfstream late in the race left me cold. Yet, Stevens always scares me.

No. 7 Flower Alley (20-1, Jorge Chavez)
He is the second-stringer in Todd Pletcher’s barn but has shown rapid development in the blink of an eye. Like Wilko, he is tempting at the 20-1 morning line but I suspect he’ll be in the 12-15 to 1 range as they walk to the gate.

No. 6 High Limit (12-1, Ramon Dominguez)
Destroyed by Bandini in the Blue Grass at Keeneland, trainer Bobby Frankel take a shot with this speedball. If you think he needed that disappointing race simply as a conditioner, maybe you can like him back in the Derby. But with all the expected early speed, Spanish Chestnut, High Fly, Bandini, Bellamy Road et al…..how can he win? Inheriting the lead behind exhausted frontrunners? Mr. Frankel, not this time.

Eliminated by the All-Star Break
No. 20 Buzzards Bay (20-1, Mark Guidry)
Shifty trainer Jeff Mullins is always dangerous but I don’t believe he’ll get the same trip from the twenty hole as he did when he won the slowish Santa Anita Derby. That same trip gave him the chance to beat Wilko in Arcadia that day but I’m gambling he’s a one-hit wonder.

Eliminated out of Spring Training

• No. 1 Sort It Out (50-1, Brice Blanc)
• No. 2 Andromeda's Hero (50-1, Rafael Bejarano)
• No. 5 Coin Silver (20-1, Pat Valenzuela)
• No. 8 Greater Good (20-1, John Mckee)
• No. 9 Greeley’s Galaxy (15-1, Kent Desormeaux)
• No. 10 Giacomo (50-1, Mike Smith)
• No. 13 Spanish Chestnut (50-1, Joe Bravo)
• No. 17 Don’t Get Mad (30-1, Russell Baze)
• No. 18 Closing Argument (30-1, Cornelio Velasquez)
• No. 19 Going Wild (50-1, Jose Valdivia)                       

If any of the above numbers run 1-2-3-or-4, that sound you hear will be the shredding of my pari-mutuel tickets on the Run for the Roses. While my last correct Derby pick was Ferdinand ($37.40) in 1986 and while my baseball sentiments lie with the Boston Red Sox, I will nevertheless stroll to the betting windows at Churchill

Downs with a full measure of confidence in George Steinbrenner’s team of Bellamy Road, trainer Nick Zito, and jockey Javier Castellano?

Should the horse taste defeat?

I will turn my program to the next race on the Churchill card on Saturday and poor Zito and Castellano will be fired by The Boss.

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