Post positions have been drawn. Odds have been set. Morning workouts are over. Jack Daniels has been sipped. Cigars have been extinguished.

Now, it’s decision time.

Your intrepid correspondent flew into Louisville earlier this week with three selections in mind — Afleet Alex, Bandini, or Bellamy Road. But after spending a few hours holed up in an NBC videotape truck watching replay after replay of the many Derby prep races, I left the van almost embarrassed about what I had failed to fully appreciate at the time — a truly amazing, almost mind-boggling effort by Bellamy Road in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct.

I have since dismissed the chances of Bandini, Afleet Alex, and the 17 other hopefuls in Saturday’s showdown. Owner George Steinbrenner has been understandably grumpy of late, given the recent Little League play of his Yankees, but The Boss will be smiling at about 5:45 on Saturday when his horse shows the world that he is a true superstar.

So with a baseball background in mind, let’s break down the field.

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No. 16, Bellamy Road (5-2, Javier Castellano)
Students of speed figures know the Road tore up the track in the Wood, but if you have the tape, watch the jockey simply sit virtually motionless throughout the race. He never asked the horse for an ounce of energy! Sure maybe you’re worried about the dreaded “bounce factor” or regression after the Wood tour de force, but clockers insist his morning works have been sensational. I’ll be betting with both fists on this guy.

Championship series runners-up
No. 12, Afleet Alex, 9-2, Jeremy Rose
How will the kid handle the pressure in his first Derby mount? Will he panic and move too soon into what should be an honest pace? In the Arkansas Derby, Rose sat off a turtle-speed pace and simply blew a bad field away with an eye-catching four-wide sweep. He needs to sit chilly again on Saturday and make his move on the far turn and take advantage of his terrific late kick. Alex in a natural “under” horse if you are playing exactas and a reliable entry to use in the trifectas and superfectas in secondary positions.

KENTUCKY DERBY NBC will televise the race from 5 p.m. to 6:30 p.m. ET on Saturday.

No. 15 Bandini (6-1, John Velazquez)
The connections have entered the speedy Spanish Chestnut as a “rabbit” to try and keep Bellamy Road off the lead but Bandini appears to be in the early mix as well so I’m not buying into the tactics. His Blue Grass race is strong but unlike Castellano in the Wood with Bellamy Road, Velasquez was in a full drive, furiously pumping and shaking his mount for maximum response. On paper, he is the likely candidate to bounce.

No. 11 High Fly (8-1, Jerry Bailey)
His style mirrors that of Bandini — a solid pace-presser that can get a bit leg weary deep in the stretch. Bailey will try to position him near Bellamy Road as long as he can and try to take him late in the race. That’s Bailey’s MO — identify the horse he thinks he has to beat and track him like a private detective.

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