Afleet Alex may be great Derby pick
Derby candidate has stamina, bloodlines — and great story
![]() | Jockey Jeremy Rose raises his arm as Afleet Alex wins the Arkansas Derby on April 16. |
Jeff Coady / AP |
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Filly wins Preakness thriller Rachel Alexandra holds off Derby winner Mine That Bird to become first female to win race since 1924. NBC Sports |
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Bob Neumeier |
If you have a soft spot for an attractive human interest story, and an affinity for a talented thoroughbred, then Afleet Alex should be your choice for the upcoming Kentucky Derby.
Much like Funny Cide in 2003, the colt is owned by a group of guys that grew up together in Philadelphia. Led by Joe Lerro and Chuck Zacney, the high school chums pooled $100,000 and bought Alex at a 2-year-old sale for $75,000 under the direction of trainer Tim Ritchie.
Regardless of how the horse runs in the Kentucky Derby, The owners have already hit a financial grand slam. The horse was a superb 2-year-old and could have even won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Lone Star if not for a wide trip that clearly cost him that race, and the boys from Philly about a $500,000. But they had even bigger fish to fry – the Kentucky Derby.
Owners optimistic
After his smashing performance in the Arkansas Derby on Saturday, the boys from Philly have to believe they have an excellent shot.
I would agree.
All season, this reporter has preached about the similar running pattern of the vast majority of legitimate Derby contenders -- the fast early, slow late style that has become typical of the modern breed. Two strong candidates to wear the roses -- High Fly and Bandini -- are perfect examples of my point. Both possess excellent early speed and good stamina but tend to stagger down the stretch -- a certain death knell for the grueling stretch run of the Kentucky Derby.
Bandini took :13.40 to run the last eighth of a mile in the Blue Grass Stakes last Saturday at Keeneland in his six-length romp.
High Fly took 13.36 seconds to run his last eighth on April 2 in the Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park, when he beat Noble Causeway by almost two lengths.
But at Oaklawn in the Arkansas Derby, Afleet Alex exploded to the finish line in an eye-popping :11.74, precisely the kind of finish you want to see in a thoroughbred capable of getting the classic distance of 1 ¼ miles.
Granted, the early pace at Oaklawn was soft compared to those in the races of Bandini or High Fly, but in some ways that makes his race even more impressive.
Extra credit for late swoop
When a horse can inhale a field from behind an easy pace, he deserves extra credit. Conversely, when horses in the back of the pack cannot fire late off a fast pace (hello Sun King and Consolidator in the Blue Grass), that is a bad sign. One could argue, I suppose, that both those horses should have been closer to the early pace at Keeneland and that their respective jocks Edgar Prado and Rafael Bejerano took them out of their basic running style.
I don’t buy it.
Can Afleet Alex beat Bellamy Road on Derby day?
Absolutely, although with less than three weeks to go, the Wood Memorial winner has to be rated the no. 1 contender. His advantage over Afleet Alex is also an extra week in recovery time after the giant effort at Aqueduct -- seven extra days that may diminish the obvious chance of the dreaded “bounce” on Derby day
With the unfortunate scratch of Blues and Royals from the Godolphin Stable due to a respiratory problem, my top five is clear-cut:
- Bellamy Road
- Afleet Alex
- Bandini
- High Fly
- Wilko (wide trips of late)
Readers of this space may also recollect the countless times I have pointed out the amazing success of the Mr. Prospector- Raise a Native breeding sire line in the Kentucky Derby.
Raise a Native bloodlines
While the first line of the pedigree of Afleet Alex may not be dazzling, look deeper.
His sire, Northern Afleet, is a son of Afleet. Afleet is a son of Mr. Prospector. Mr. Prospector is a son of Raise a Native.
When added together, there is plenty to like about Afleet Alex on Derby day. It will be interesting to see if the “low-profile connections” stick with rookie jockey Jeremy Rose or will they go “big-time” with the likes of Corey Nakatani, Alex Solis, or Pat Valenzuela.
Personally, I hope they give Rose the shot. He did lead the meet at Oaklawn Park.
Plus, it would make the story warmer and fuzzier than it is already, making Afleet Alex a horse lots of folks could root for.
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