One of my worst sports predictions ever – aside from my 2005 NCAA tournament bracket, of course – was tabbing Ryan Leaf as a future NFL star. But unlike the bracket, which I compiled under extreme deadline pressure and while I was under heavy sedation from a team of physicians because of a highly sensitive and potentially life-threatening medical condition, the selection of Leaf was performed while I was completely lucid and in full control of my faculties. That’s what hurts the most to this day.

Soothing the pain somewhat is the knowledge that I wasn’t alone on the Leaf blunder. The San Diego Chargers took him as the second overall selection in the 1998 draft. The choice was hailed by many NFL experts. Remember, at the time Leaf had not yet been exposed as a Baby Huey in pads. He had not yet berated reporters for no apparent reason. He had not yet alienated coaches, teammates, fans, media types, transients, tourists, those living in foreign lands and the entire animal kingdom.

But as history has shown, Leaf turned out to be the biggest bust in the history of professional sports. Certainly there have been other candidates. Old-schoolers will point to two picks by the Portland Trail Blazers: LaRue Martin in 1972 and Sam Bowie in 1984. Steve Emtman, Brian Bosworth, Aundray Bruce, Kenneth Sims, Lawrence Phillips, David Klingler and Heath Shuler come to mind as wastes of NFL picks. David Clyde was a much-ballyhooed teenage pitching prospect who was rushed by the Texas Rangers and quickly fizzled. And there are many others.

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But those men are first-ballot Hall of Famers compared to Leaf. In Cryin’ Ryan, you had the rare five-tool failure: immaturity,  selfishness, lack of skills, lack of guts and poor work ethic. What I like to refer to as the “bust quotient” – a mathematical formula of my own creation that factors in draft position, financial outlay, any extraordinary measures used to obtain the player (i.e., trading up for a pick) and impact on a franchise’s future, among other variables – has Leaf in a class by himself. He is the Joe Montana of duds.

Therefore, comparisons between Leaf and any players in this year’s NFL draft are grossly unfair. So nominations for the 2005 Ryan Leaf Award will not go to players who are anywhere close to the freak that Leaf turned out to be. They will instead be bestowed on potential disappointments, players who come into the draft with high expectations but who could also flop.

Let’s face it, not all of the combine sensations touted highly in mock drafts will have long and productive NFL seasons. There are always turkeys among the can’t-miss kids. It happens every year.

The five players listed below are candidates for the Ryan Leaf Award. They are all likely first-round selections with star quality who, for various reasons, have at least the potential to crash and burn. But remember, Leaf walked away with an $11 million signing bonus, so don’t feel too sorry for them:

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Cedric Benson, RB, Texas
Benson, picked fourth overall by the Bears, rushed for over 1,000 yards in each of his four collegiate seasons. Not bad, eh? But he has a tendency to have his worst performances in the biggest games. The two games in which he had under 100 yards last season came against Oklahoma (92) and Michigan in the Rose Bowl (70). Meanwhile, he fattened up against North Texas, Arkansas, Rice and Baylor, amassing 746 of his 1,834 yards against those patsies. Although he has 4.5 combine speed, he plods rather than explodes through the hole, a no-no in the faster, quicker NFL. He isn’t much of a receiver. And there is a belief that he might be the second coming of Ricky Williams in an unflattering way: Cedric may not love football the way a coach or GM wants a top draft pick to love football. That could result in attitude problems at the next level, especially with millions already in the bank by that time.

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