Read the Racing Form cross-eyed
Your vision will improve, if you handicap the Kentucky Derby by looking askance of the facts. As the best-selling author Malcolm Gladwell will tell you, “Blink” is a better method of deciding on which horse to bet than poring over the details.

Gladwell isn’t only correct with his recommendation, he’s spot on in understanding the methods by which most people pick horses. “People initially identify a favorite and then ‘bolster’ it, convincing themselves that it’s better than the others until they feel good enough about it that they can choose it,” says University of Southern California professor Aaron Brownstein, who has made a study of how bettors select the horses they wager on.

There must be a Kentucky Derby candidate that’s already caught your eye, isn’t there?  Well, don’t abandon him because the facts don’t support his probability to win.

On paper, Derby winner Real Quiet in ’98 was the lesser of two Baffert-trained entries; Indian Charlie was the darling of the pedigree pundits. Charismatic in ’99 was an impressive winner of the Lexington Stakes, but having once been a colt running in claiming races, the expert analysts (an oxymoron, if ever there was one) dismissed him.

Maybe you’re one of those thousands who watched the jaw-dropping maiden win of Risen Star winner Scipion at Saratoga last August and can’t get him out of your head.  Or, perhaps you witnessed Proud Accolade in the Champagne going one turn to victory at Belmont, and now you’re afraid that he can’t get two turns.  Proud Accolade from the Todd Pletcher barn seems the best 3-year-old to have raced at Gulfstream this winter, including Sun King and Bandini. Seeing him cross-eyed in the Daily Racing Form has him winning the Florida Derby.

Think in threes; faith rests in the trinity
It takes years for professional handicappers to accept change. Steven Crist is so upset over the rescheduling of the Derby preps that he’s making it an excuse to dismiss horses that have had only two prep races this spring from consideration. This is a sure way to go broke, because recent Derby winners have proved that the only three races that count are the Kentucky Derby, the Preakness and the Belmont. Having a fresh horse coming into the Classics is better than having one that’s not.

Believe in the trinity, but believe that it begins with a horse’s race before the Kentucky Derby and ends with the Preakness.  With this cosmic handicapping angle, you would have selected Silver Charm, Real Quiet, Charismatic, War Emblem, Funny Cide and Smarty Jones – six of the last eight winners. Use the crystal ball and the cross-eyed reading techniques to find a horse about to round into form, not one who is trying to hold form.

So what about Paraneck Stable’s Pavo, a son of Marquetry trained by Jennifer Pederson, who finished second to the Phipps Stable’s Survivalist in the Gotham with the jockey riding out of the stirrups for half of the race? Or is there a glimmer of hope to be gleaned from the easy way that Rockport Harbor, trained by John Servis, cruised to the lead in the Rebel before losing to Greater Good?  Maybe one needs only to look to the upcoming weekend, when Derrick Smith’s and Michael Tabor’s Spanish Chestnut runs in the Lane’s End for Patrick Biancone.

Now, with your head swimming in outer space, be forewarned. Regardless of the powers of the paranormal, there’s only one “sure thing” to bet on. The horse with the most fascinating story will prevail. Historians have a way to edit reality that makes winners the obvious choice once they’ve won. And looking at it this way, your Kentucky Derby swami’s pick in the final “Future Wager” pool is the lone filly that will be in the race, Sweet Catomine.