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Top seeds will help
end upset trend

Tourney looks like 1999, when three
No. 1 seeds, No. 4 reached Final Four

Image: BrownGetty Images
Dee Brown and No. 1 Illinois should help to stop the upsets in the NCAA Tournament, writes NBCSports.com's Mike Miller.

I’m tempted to pencil in Louisville for the Final Four. Rick Pitino’s team got jobbed with a four seed by the tournament committee despite playing better than just about any team in the country since Christmas. But can you really write off Washington that easily? More and more, the Huskies are reminding me of the ’97 Minnesota squad that won the Big Ten title, featured NBA star Bobby Jackson, and made a Final Four run. That team was the same way in that it won a lot of games, but you never knew just how good it was.

Then again, Washington could be like another Pac-10 softy of recent years such as Stanford. I’m going with Louisville.

After that, Chicago has to be considered the toughest region, with the Nos. 1, 2 and 3 seeds in the Sweet 16. The Oklahoma State-Arizona game should be a classic, while the Illini figure to end UW-Milwaukee’s run. The Wildcats or the Cowboys could beat the Illini, but, despite thinking Oklahoma State would come out of this region before the tournament began, I’ll stick with the Illini.

By now, I’m convinced. Plus, the Allstate Arena in Rosemont, Ill., will be loaded with Orange Krush fans.

Syracuse seems to be a lock for UNC, provided Villanova doesn’t shoot lights out on Friday. N.C. State will out-slow Wisconsin, giving the ACC a lock for at least one team in the Final Four. Stick with the Heels.

Austin, meanwhile, is the other trouble spot for the top seed.

The Blue Devils have looked vulnerable in both of their tournament games. J.J. Redick hasn’t been his usual hot-shooting self and they don’t have their usual swagger this time of the year.

Still, if there’s one coach that can out-do Tom Izzo — who has the second best tournament win percentage of any active coach — it’s Mike Krzyzewski, who just passed Dean Smith for the tournament wins record. That active coach with a better win percentage? Coach K. Plus, Duke already beat Michigan State once this year.

That sets up the Devils against the Kentucky-Utah winner. And the Utes, despite Andrew Bogut’s presence, never beat the Wildcats in March.

A Duke-Kentucky showdown for a Final Four berth, which has happened twice in the last 13 years, both of which produced classic games, makes me smile. Kentucky won the last one in ’98, which makes me think this year is Duke’s turn. Plus, doesn’t it seem like the Devils have had just about everything go their way this year?

There you go: Three No. 1 seeds in the Final Four, along with a No. 4, just like ’99. And, just like ’99, we’ll get the nation’s two best teams going for the title. Yeah, it’s a coincidence I want to happen, but so what?

It’ll be every bit as entertaining as the first two rounds and be a lot easier on your bracket. It’s a win-win.

Mike Miller is NBCSports.com's college basketball editor. E-mail him at sports@msnbc.com.


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