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If Matt Kenseth can avoid the misfortune that has found him in the season's first two Cup events, he stands a good chance Sunday of winning his third straight race at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, says Benny Parsons of NBCSports.com.

Others I will keep a close eye on are Ryan Newman, Kasey Kahne, Jamie McMurray and Kevin Harvick.

In four previous Las Vegas starts, Newman has a pair of top-10 finishes. He'll be using the same chassis that took him to a ninth-place finish at California. Kahne's first Las Vegas Cup race was last year and all he did was finish second to Kenseth. McMurray placed fourth at California two weeks ago, and fourth at Las Vegas last year. Harvick ran sixth at California, and last year at Las Vegas he led in the late stages of the race before running out of fuel with just four laps remaining. 

If Jeff Gordon wins any race on the schedule, it would not surprise me, but in California, where Gordon came home 30th, I didn't see anything that made me think the four-time Cup champion will be in Victory Lane in Las Vegas.

My darkhorse is Casey Mears, who I believe can take the huge improvement he displayed in 2004 and build on it this year. Last March Mears qualified 13th and finished seventh in Las Vegas, and in 2003 he was 15th in the desert.

Keys to success at Las Vegas
At this tri-oval, we'll get to see more of the impact of the shorter rear spoilers and softer tires introduced this season by NASCAR.

Some teams are looking like they are quickly capitalizing on the differences, while others seem to be having some difficulty in adapting to them. The banking at Las Vegas does not exceed 12 degrees.

Expect fast speeds and drivers looking to run on the bottom of the track, although once the race has been going for a while, there can be two-wide racing as an outside groove develops. There could be a lot of passing off Turn 2 and coming off Turn 4 it gets a bit bumpy.

A driver doesn't need for his car to have the most horsepower to win, but rather he needs it to handle well enough so he can come off the corner and get right back on the gas and speed off. The driver and car that are the best at that are a solid bet to win the race.

Good pit stops are a critical factor in winning, and entering pit row under a green flag is quite challenging as a sharp turn is needed to get off the track and into the pits.