Matt Kenseth hasn't had a great start to the 2005 season, but that could all change in Sunday's Nextel Cup race at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, where the Roush racer will be going for a three-peat. Kenseth's one of five drivers I think have an edge to win in the desert.

Working in Kenseth's favor
In five races at Las Vegas, Kenseth has led 221 laps, more than any other driver. His penchant for not qualifying well may not play into the results at Las Vegas where only one of seven Cup races has been won from a starting position inside the top 10.

And at this track Kenseth is the driver who has come from deepest in the field (25th) to win, a feat he pulled off in last year's race. Of Cup drivers who have run at least five races at this 1.5-mile tri-oval, Kenseth has the best average finish (9.4).

Misfortune has found Kenseth in the first two races of this season.

A broken piston ended his day at Daytona after just 37 laps, and at California he ran in the top 10 most of the race, leading for 57 laps, but a flat tire late in the race dropped him to a 26th-place finish.

Kenseth's car was strong at California and the No. 17 team is bringing the same chassis to Las Vegas.

Other drivers to watch
California Speedway, which hosted the season's second Nextel Cup race on Feb. 27, is a very similar track to Las Vegas Motor Speedway, so I look for drivers who fared well in Fontana to  also run well in the desert.

Mark Martin finished seventh at California, and he has a solid past at Las Vegas.

Martin won the inaugural Cup 400-miler at Las Vegas in 1998, and in seven career starts at this track he has four top-fives and six top-10s, giving him an average finish of 10.1.

Like Kenseth, Martin is a Roush racer, and Roush cars have won five of the seven Cup races at Las Vegas.

While I like Martin's chances, Kenseth's top competition I feel will come from Jimmie Johnson, Kurt Busch, Greg Biffle, and Joe Nemechek.

Johnson took second in California, and in three races at Las Vegas, his best finish has been sixth (2002), and his average finish is 11.0. The Hendricks Motorsports driver is especially tough on flat tracks where he won twice in seven starts last year. Plus, there are no obvious weak spots with the No. 48 team, which looks like it will make a very strong run for the Cup championship this season. 

Busch's best result in four races at this track is ninth, which came last season. This is a special race for Busch, a Las Vegas native. The No. 97 Ford hasn't run as well at Las Vegas as Busch and crew chief Jimmy Fennig have wanted it to, but Fennig says the team learned some things in preseason testing at the track that they hope will pay off in the race.

Biffle is red hot coming off his win in California two weeks ago. He tested in Las Vegas in the preseason, and in Sunday's race will go with a car similar to the one he got to Victory Lane with in California.

Nemechek led a race-high 63 laps in California. It looked like he had the strongest car in the field, but he blew an engine late in the race and wound up 39th. He's had a pair of top-10 results in seven Las Vegas races, and he had one of the fastest cars at the test session in desert.

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