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NHL players like Calgary's Andrew Ference, left, and Tampa Bay's Vincent Lecavalier, may feel united now during the lockout, but that solidarity is likely to fade if an impasse is declared and owners plan to field teams thsi fall, says NHL Expert Kevin Dupont.

Our NHL Expert, Hockey of Hall of Fame honoree Kevin Dupont of the Boston Globe, is here to answer your questions.

Q: I know it's a bit hard to guess without knowing the details of the system imposed by the owners, but if the NHL uses replacement players this fall, how many players would cross over?
— Ron Young from Landover, Md.
A: Frankly, Ron, even if I knew what conditions and pay the owners would post, estimating the number of “crossovers” would still be pure speculation.

But, hey, you asked.

And the answer is: far more than the Players' Association would like to believe.

Generally, I think life breaks down into three sizes — small, medium and large. Ergo, I'm willing to bet at least one-third of the rank-and-file, about 250, would have crossed over this spring if the league had successfully imposed contract conditions. Now, add another six months to the waiting game, leading up to October 2005, and I'm willing to bet at least half of the “mediums” would be eager to cross the line.

If I'm correct — and again, this is ALL guess work — that would have some 350 players crossing the line. If so, it's over for the NHLPA as we know it. With half the workers across, others quickly will follow, to say nothing of the free agents around the world who'll come a runnin'.

Goodbye, union.

Just imagine the lower-skilled guys in Europe, kicked to the curb this season by the displaced NHLers, racing to airports in Prague and Helsinki and Stockholm for their ticket to the big time in North America. They won't hesitate, not after watching bread and milk get shoved off their table by the big-foots from across the Atlantic.

Let's also not forget that there are some minor-league players on this side of the Atlantic who also lost work in the U.S. and Canada when the locked out NHLers gave them the steel-toed boot.

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Overall, Ron, it would not be pretty. If I'm correct, there would be 500-600 players suited and ready to go, in very short order. Yes, there would be some NHLPA hard-liners, right to the bitter end, and it indeed would be a bitter ending.

When the NHL's board of governors met en masse at the start of March, soon after the 2004-'05 season was whistled dead for a second time, one of the topics focused on was impasse/replacement players. But it remains only that: a talking point, fraught with anxiety for both owners and players.

Despite what you may read in the weeks and months ahead — if the two sides remain unable to hash out a new collective bargaining agreement — there is no one on either side of the center-ice red line who knows if courts and government agencies in both the U.S. and Canada would allow the league to start up without coming to terms with the union.

But only fools say never. Remember, it was the union that said “never” — a million times over — to the idea of accepting a salary cap, only to give up that sacred cow in February. As the weeks pass by now, the players will say “never” again when asked about the prospects of 1) the league successfully imposing work conditions and 2) whether they would ever cross the line and perform non-union work.

Question is, have they learned anything from their lost season in Neverland?

Q: What would the lack of a draft likely mean for star-in-waiting Sidney Crosby's development?
— Michael from Manitoba
A: Well, Michael, even with no draft, and no 2005-'06 NHL season, Crosby will find work somewhere. European teams would get in the bidding, and he would end up with a top-notch club over there.

Now, would it be the best thing for his career development? No way of telling. Heck, he could go right to the NHL, and there is no guarantee that he would end up on a fast-track to success. He's a teenager, albeit a very talented one, and it's that talent that at least improves his chances of succeeding.

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