Ellen Ozier / Reuters

The closest thing to a sure-fire champ in the NCAA Tournament isn't Illinois, but North Carolina, writes NBCSports.com's Mike Celizic.

UConn had Okafor, one of the best, last year. This year, the Heels have Sean May, who’s maybe a Big Mac short of 270 pounds on a 6-9 frame.

May isn’t as athletic as Okafor was, but he knows how to play center and use his bulk. He’s averaging a double-double on the year — 10 boards and 16 points. And, while he gets only one block a game, the timing on his last one couldn’t have been better, coming on the last shot of a narrow win over Maryland.

Flanking May is a brace of 6-9 forwards who share the surname Williams — Jawad and Marvin. Jackie Manuel starts at forward, but Marvin Williams is the Heels’ answer to Boone or Villanueva, as a freshman who makes a difference. Marvin Williams, in fact, plays better than 20 minutes a game and averages 7 rebounds and 11 points — both better totals than Manuel.

Also like Connecticut, the UNC has a good, quick point guard, Raymond Felton, and a shooting guard, Rashad McCants, who can fill it up.

The main reason the Huskies were overlooked by some casual fans last year was their six losses, including mini mid-season slump when they were 5-4. The Tar Heels have only three losses, including their opener to Santa Clara. They’ve also lost to Wake Forest in the ACC and suffered a one-point loss to Duke when Felton could neither produce nor set up a shot on the game’s last possession.

The Duke loss was enough to introduce doubt about Carolina’s toughness and Felton’s ability to come through under pressure. The Heels gained some measure of respect when they topped the Devils on Sunday, but another loss in the ACC tournament would convince a lot of people that as well as Roy Williams has done in his second year since leaving Kansas, he’ll never win a game that truly matters, especially if it’s against Mike Krzyzewski and Duke.

But Williams may not have to play Duke at all in the NCAA tournament and might not have to worry about the Blue Devils until deep into March Madness — or not at all if somebody else can knock off the Blue Devils.

The bottom line is, if you had to put your money on one team to win it all, and losing was not an option, you have to go with the Heels. They’ve got five NBA draft choices on the court. They’re almost all upperclassmen with one super freshman and loads of depth; five players average in double figures.

Many might still go with Illinois. The money choice is UNC.

And if Williams doesn’t get his team to the Final Four, Tar Heel fans will let him know what real nightmares are made of.

More news

Mark J. Terrill / AP

Gordon reacted to article right way

CBT: Drew Gordon is taking a different approach to SI's UCLA article than Reeves Nelson, one much more likely to result in hearing his name called come NBA draft day.

Former Indiana coach Watson dies at 88

BLOOMINGTON, Ind. (AP) - Former Indiana coach and player Lou Watson has died at the age of 88.

Headlines

• Label

CBT: Cincinnati, Xavier to continue rivalry

CBT: 4 Indiana schools extend Crossroads Classic

CBT: Stony Brook says it's staying put ... for now

CBT: Will Michigan re-hang the Fab Five banners?

CBT: Is the new early entry deadline working?

CBT: Fine's wife to sue ESPN for libel

CBT: Coach K gets a lot of bucks and bennies

CBT: ACC will include all 14 teams in tournament