BALTIMORE ORIOLES

2005 finish: 74-88, 4^th place in AL East

Manager: Sam Perlozzo (1^st full season)

Incoming: RHP Kris Benson, C Ramon Hernandez, OF Corey Patterson, RHP LaTroy Hawkins, 1B/OF Jeff Conine, 1B/OF Kevin Millar, LHP Franklyn Gracesqui

Long gone: LHP B.J. Ryan, RHP Jorge Julio, 1B Rafael Palmeiro, OF Sammy Sosa, RHP Sidney Ponson, 1B/OF B.J. Surhoff, LHP Steve Kline, C Sal Fasano, RHP Jason Grimsley, C/OF Eli Marrero, RHP James Baldwin, 1B Walter Young, RHP John Maine

Rotation: RHP Rodrigo Lopez, LHP Erik Bedard, RHP Kris Benson, RHP Daniel Cabrera, LHP Bruce Chen

Relievers: Closer: RHP Chris Ray; Setup men: RHP LaTroy Hawkins, LHP Tim Byrdak, LHP Eric DuBose, LHP Franklyn Gracesqui, RHP Todd Williams (DL)

Regulars: 2B Brian Roberts, LF Jeff Conine, 3B Melvin Mora, SS Miguel Tejada, RF Jay Gibbons, 1B Javier Lopez, C Ramon Hernandez, DH Kevin Millar, CF Corey Patterson

Role players: C Geronimo Gil, IF Chris Gomez, IF/OF David Newhan, OF Luis Matos, OF Jeff Fiorentino, OF Nick Markakis

The pressure is on: Needless to say, Leo Mazzone doesn’t have as much to work with here as he did in Atlanta. The bullpen is a disaster area at this point.

Breakout candidate: Daniel Cabrera has the size (6-7, 250) and stuff to become a dominant starting pitcher at the top of the rotation. It will be up to Mazzone to turn that potential into results, and you can expect significant improvement.

Rundown: They lost their closer in free agency. Their superstar shortstop asked to be traded, then rescinded. So did another of their veteran stars. On top of all that, they failed to lure a handful of notable free agents or trade for another big bat. Welcome to the Orioles’ winter from hell, and you have to wonder if the soap opera will continue into the regular season. One of the few positives was manager Sam Perlozzo luring his best friend, Leo Mazzone, from Atlanta to guide a young pitching staff. But the overall picture isn’t good, and if things don’t go well early, there could be some dumping of high salary/disgruntled types such as Miguel Tejada and Javy Lopez. That could create a second half where younger players get more of a chance, and the latest retooling could occur. Granted, B.J. Ryan getting $47 million is a stretch. But the Orioles gambled and lost by not locking him up at some point during last season, when he showed he has what it takes to be a closer. Instead, they let him get to free agency, and then got blown out of the water by the Blue Jays. That leaves 24-year-old Chris Ray, a minor-league starting pitcher with all of 40.2 big-league innings under his belt, as first in line to be Ryan’s replacement. If that doesn’t work out -- and most likely it won’t -- there is LaTroy Hawkins, whose pattern of setup man effectiveness and closer failures is well-established. Todd Williams, who had his best and only full big-league season at age 34 in 2005, has been slowed this spring by a sore shoulder, and no longer can be counted on. With inconsistent Jorge Julio also gone, the rest of the pen is young, inexperienced and not all that effective. Kris Benson came from the Mets for Julio and John Maine, and he will be an upgrade over departed pseudo-ace Sidney Ponson. But Benson has pitched 200 innings only once in the last four years, and is a No. 3-type, not an ace. You can say the same thing about Rodrigo Lopez, who again will be the Opening Day starter. Eric Bedard faded badly after a 5-1-2.08 first two months, creating some doubt. Daniel Cabrera has great stuff and at times is untouchable, but consistency is what Mazzone will have to bring out in him. Bruce Chen came of journeyman status to win 13 games, so he has to prove he can do it again. If all goes well, there could be plenty of production from a lineup that includes Brian Roberts, Melvin Mora, Tejada, Lopez, John Gibbons and Ramon Hernandez. But Roberts will be coming off elbow surgery, and Lopez, 35, and Hernandez, 30, have injury filled histories and aren’t kids anymore. And not that Sammy Sosa and Rafael Palmeiro provided much last season, but the O’s shouldn’t be expecting too much from 40-year-old Jeff Conine and Kevin Millar, who slipped to .272-9-50 last season. Considering the O’s slid to 27-48 in a horrible 2005 second half, while the Devil Rays were a respectable 39-34 over that same time frame, a last-place finish is a distinct possibility here.

Predicted finish: 5^th place, 70-92

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