TORONTO BLUE JAYS

2005 finish: 80-82, 3^rd place in AL East

Manager: John Gibbons (3rd season)

Incoming: RHP A.J. Burnett, LHP B.J. Ryan, 3B Troy Glaus, 1B Lyle Overbay, C Bengie Molina, IF John McDonald, C/1B Jason Phillips

Long gone: 2B Orlando Hudson, 3B Corey Koskie, RHP Miguel Batista, RHP David Bush, OF Gabe Gross, RHP Chad Gaudin

Rotation: RHP Roy Halladay, RHP A.J. Burnett, LHP Gustavo Chacin, RHP Josh Towers, LHP Ted Lilly

Relievers: Closer: LHP B.J. Ryan; Setup men: RHP Ryan Speier, RHP Jason Frasor, LHP Scott Schoeneweis, RHP Vinny Chulk, RHP Pete Walker, LHP Scott Downs

Regulars: SS Russ Adams, LF Frank Catalanotto, CF Vernon Wells, 3B Troy Glaus, 1B Lyle Overbay, DH Shea Hillenbrand, RF Alexis Rios, C Bengie Molina, 2B Aaron Hill

Role players: C Gregg Zaun, 1B/3B/OF Eric Hinske, IF John McDonald, OF Reed Johnson, C/1B Jason Phillips

The pressure is on: A.J. Burnett and B.J. Ryan must prove they’re worth huge contracts.

Breakout candidate: Russ Adams, 25, should push his average into the .270-.280 range, score 80-plus runs from the leadoff spot and solidify his defense at shortstop in his second full season.

Rundown: For all the money they will make, and all the accompanying expectations on A.J. Burnett and B.J. Ryan, the key to the staff and the season is Roy Halladay. If he’s not the 2002-03 innings horse/41-game winner, or the ace who went 12-4 with a 2.41 ERA before taking a Kevin Mench line drive off his left shin last July 8, the Jays can spend all the money in Ontario and still not finish ahead of New York and Boston. Halladay appears to be fully recovered, so that’s great news. Add Burnett, lefties Ted Lilly and Gustavo Chacin and an effective No. 5 starter in Josh Towers, and you’ve got what should be a very solid rotation. Burnett in effect replaces the combination of David Bush and Pete Walker, who went 9-12-4.42 in 230 innings, so expect improvement there, and Lilly made only 25 starts coming off shoulder woes. The upgrade to Ryan from Miguel Batista should be even more substantial, not just in terms of saves, but also in overall dominance -- 2.34 ERA, 100 strikeouts, 54 hits allowed in 70 innings for Ryan in 2005 to 4.10 ERA, 54 strikeouts and 84 hits allowed in 74.2 innings for Batista. In front of Ryan is an unheralded but quality-filled setup crew, all of whom had ERAs of 3.88 or lower last season – Justin Speier, Jason Frasor, Vinny Chulk, Scott Schoeneweis and Walker. There also is versatility with Walker and Scott Downs capable of starting, plus top prospects on the cusp in starter Dustin McGowan and reliever Brandon League.  Overall, new pitching coach Brad Arnsberg’s staff should improve on last year’s sixth-place finish in ERA. With Troy Glaus in the lineup, there is reason to expect the Jays to add to their measly total of 136 homers -- 11^th in the AL despite playing half the time in one of the league’s better hitters’ parks. Glaus belted 37 in a rebound season in Arizona in 2005, and that easily would have made him the team leader here, as Vernon Wells hit 28, and nobody else hit more than 18. Lyle Overbay’s numbers also will be an upgrade over Eric Hinske’s. And it wasn’t likely that Gregg Zaun could match his career offensive year in 2005, so they got very capable Bengie Molina for one year and $5 million in a late-winter steal. Still, this is not an offense that can match production with the Yankees and Red Sox. First of all, there is no proven quality leadoff hitter. Russ Adams likely will get the call after hitting .256 with 63 RBI in his first full season. The corner outfield spots remain short in terms of power, as Alexis Rios and the left-field platoon of Frank Catalanotto and Reed Johnson combined for only 26 homers last season. Hinske will get some at-bats against right-handed pitchers by playing some in right. The defense will take a hit without Gold Glover Orlando Hudson at second base, although Aaron Hill should handle the spot adequately, and Adams must cut down on his 26 errors. A jump from 80 wins to 90 isn’t out of the question. But it says here they will fall just short of the playoffs.

Prediction: 2^nd place, 88-74

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