TIME: Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET, CBS

PLAYERS TO WATCH
Jets: The word on quarterback Chad Pennington has always been that he doesn’t have the world’s strongest arm, and he is working with a damaged shoulder. But he threw a touchdown pass to Santana Moss that traveled 60 yards in the air against San Diego, something that was supposed to be impossible. Pennington was efficient and accurate against the Chargers and he has to be every bit that good against the Steelers. The Jets need the NFL’s leading rusher, Curtis Martin, to control the game and backup Lamont Jordan, an electrifying runner, to produce some big plays. On defense, the Jets need their leading pass rusher, John Abraham, to return from a knee injury to put pressure on Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. Jonathan Vilma, the NFL’s defensive rookie of the year, will key the Jets’ efforts to stop the Steelers running game.

Steelers: The question is whether rookie quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, winner of 14 in a row, is healthy after being dinged up late in the season. The Steelers also rely on a strong running game led by all-time great Jerome "The Bus" Bettis and Duce Staley. Hines Ward is a top possession receiver and Antwaan Randle-El and Plaxico Burress are game-breakers. The Steelers are loaded on defense, with perhaps the best linebacker corps in the league led by James Farrior and Joey Porter. Strong safety Troy Polamalu leads the team in interceptions and is the team’s second leading tackler.

The Jets win if . . .
There’s a lot of ifs for the Jets, who lost to the Steelers 17-6 during the season. Held without a touchdown in that game, Pennington was 17-for-31 with three interceptions. Remove those three turnovers and the Jets have a good chance of playing the Steelers, who scored only three points until the final quarter during the regular-season game, even. If they don’t turn the ball over and get a score from special teams – either Moss on a punt return or rookie Jerricho Cotchery – the Jets can win this game.

The Steelers win if . . .
Ground control. Establish Bettis and Staley on the ground, take the pressure off Big Ben Roethlisberger, and eat up clock and the game. That’s the formula that the Steelers have followed all season, and it has worked for 15 wins. On the other side of the ball, if the Steelers stuff the Jets running game, they should be able to put enough pressure on Pennington to force him into the mistakes the Jets can’t afford to have.

The Jets lose if. . .
Turnovers and stupidity. The Jets aren’t good enough to go minus-3 in turnovers and win the game. Nor can they survive more knuckleheaded plays such as the personal foul Eric Barton collected against the Chargers in the wild-card round. New York has taken care of the ball exceptionally well this season, and they had avoided big penalties, but if they fail on either count, the Jets will lose early yet again.

The Steelers lose if. . .
The surest way for the Steelers to lose is to fail to stuff the Jets’ running game. If they let Martin and Lamont Jordan grind out yards, Pennington will turn into Joe Montana when the Jets choose to pass and the Steelers will lose.

Prediction
This isn’t as clear-cut as it looks. The Steelers needed three picks and two fourth-period scores to beat the Jets the first time around, and Pennington was still recovering from a shoulder injury. Both defenses are among the league’s best, and scores are going to be hard to come by. But the Steelers are 15-1 for a reason; they find ways to win. They’ll do that again here and move on to the AFC Championship Game with a hard-fought 17-13 win.

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