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COMMENTARY
By Ron Borges
updated 1:43 p.m. ET Jan. 4, 2005

The NFC held form to the end when its two hottest teams missed the playoffs, its two best finished with back-to-back losses and two of its weakest staggered into the postseason. Considering how the rest of the season went in the NFC, who's surprised?

With the postseason set, the NFC is as big a mess today as it was all year, with the Eagles and Falcons holding byes after losing two straight. Although both rested the majority of their best players, that's no way to go into the drive for the Super Bowl.

Those losses may have given hope to the third-seeded Packers, who will host the limping Minnesota Vikings (8-8), but they shouldn't do much for the confidence of the fourth-seeded Seahawks, who beat Atlanta in a game so meaningless the Falcons only showed up because the league required it.

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The Rams did manage to finish 8-8 by beating the fading Jets in overtime, but that loss didn't effect New York's hopes because Buffalo blew a home game to the AFC's top-seeded Steelers. The Jets are in, but they won't be for long.

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Meanwhile, the Saints won their final four games but failed to advance at 8-8. Neither did the defending NFC champion Panthers, although they won six of their final eight after a 1-7 start. A season-ending loss to New Orleans meant they were both eliminated even though each seemed more likely to do postseason damage in the NFC than the Vikings, Rams or Seahawks.

That's because Minnesota backed in despite losing seven of its final 10 games for the second year in a row, including the season finale to the lowly Washington Redskins (6-10). The loss left Vikings' coach Mike Tice with, shall we say, mixed emotions about his team's chances against the Packers, who beat the Vikings twice in the regular season by identical 34-31 scores.

"I'll enjoy the fact we got in the playoffs,'' Tice said. "We won enough games to get in. But we're not going to do some stupid (expletive) like open up a bottle of champagne or anything.''

If they didn't do it Sunday, they won't be doing it until next New Year's Eve because they're not gong to be in the playoffs for long. Could they beat the Packers? Sure. Will they? Don't count on it, because while the Vikings have faded the Packers improved as the season wore on.

In an oddity, those division rivals will face each other for the third time this season in the wild-card round, but so too will the Seahawks (9-7) and Rams (8-8). Both won their final games, but don't be fooled. They both stink, although when facing each other the Rams have been considerably less odorous this season.

Although St. Louis will have to journey to Seattle to take on the Seahawks, they will go into that game knowing they can win it because they've already done that twice this year, coming back from 17 down with six minutes to play to beat the Seahawks on the road, 33-27, in overtime. They also beat them, 23-12, in St. Louis.

It is difficult to beat a division rival three times in the same season, but the Seahawks have not played well for two months so why should anything change in the postseason? Neither have the Rams, to be honest, which in the end is why neither one of these teams will last long.

Obviously one of them has to advance to a division playoff game against either the Falcons or Eagles, but the larger picture is that neither is good enough to last more than one weekend in the playoffs unless the NFC is even worse than it's appeared to be all season.

In the AFC, the Jets did the same thing Minnesota did to win the conference's fifth seed — advance by losing. New York (10-6) reached the postseason despite dropping its last two games, including Sunday's 32-29 setback to St. Louis in which they allowed Rams' quarterback Marc Bulger to pass for 450 yards and three touchdowns.

The Jets couldn't blame that loss on running back Curtis Martin. He rushed for 153 yards to win the NFL rushing title and move into fourth place all-time among NFL running backs. Martin would seem able to do the same thing again against the Chargers but that doesn't mean they'll advance to a return match with either the Steelers (15-1) or Patriots (14-2), however, because San Diego showed once again on Sunday that they are no fluke.

The Chargers (12-4) won for the 10th time in their last 12 starts, beating up the Kansas City Chiefs with an explosive offense, even if it was led by Doug Flutie and rookie Philip Rivers, rather than Cinderella sensation Drew Brees, at quarterback.

Brees, like his team, had been written off before the season began only to put up remarkable numbers in the final three months that have forced the Chargers into a situation where they have no choice but to slap the franchise tag on him after the season even though Rivers is their quarterback of the future.

They have to make that move because Brees is so clearly their quarterback of the present. If he beats the Jets Saturday night — as seems likely — he'll also be their quarterback of the immediate future. The Jets have shown little spunk against what would be regarded as the league's elite teams, losing in non-competitive fashion to the Steelers, Patriots and Bills and Sunday to the Rams. They were at least close in that game, but the Lambs are not the Chargers, as the Jets seem very likely to find out on their way to rapid elimination.

The Jets' loss made it easy for the streaking Bills, winners of six straight, to get into the postseason. All they had to do was win again at home against a Steeler team that was resting as many people as it could and still field 11 men on offense and 11 on defense.

They couldn't do it even with Ben Roethlisberger, Jerome Bettis and Plaxico Burris all bundled up in street clothes for the day, so they joined the Panthers and Saints as three of the league's hottest teams who all failed to reach the playoffs. Considering how the Bills played against Pittsburgh and how badly they were blown out by the Patriots in their last regular-season meeting maybe it's just as well because they weren't going to go far against the elite of the AFC either.

That left one more playoff slot open and it went to the Denver Broncos by default when the Colts benched their offense, allowing Denver to win 33-14 without so much as an argument. What that will mean next Sunday when the Broncos return to Indianapolis to take on a far different Colts' team than the one they lambasted is ... nothing.

"We're going to have to move the football,'' Broncos' coach Mike Shanahan said of the task he will face returning to play the third-seeded Colts for the second straight weekend for the second straight year. "If you don't move the football and don't put some points on the scoreboard against an excellent offensive team, and you get behind, you're in for a long day. That's what happened a year ago.''

What happened a year ago when these two teams ended up in a similar back-to-back scenario was a 41-10 demolishment in which Colts' quarterback Peyton Manning posted a perfect quarterback efficiency ratio. He won't be that efficient this time but he'll be efficient enough to send the Colts back to New England the following weekend to see if they can finally find some way for Manning to get a win in Foxboro.

In the six seasons since Elway's retirement, once-brilliant Mike Shanahan's game plans haven't seemed quite so inspired. The Broncos have not won a playoff game and failed to reach the postseason in half of those years.

The former isn't likely to change in Indianapolis, where the Colts' defense will surely allow the Broncos to score because they allow everyone to score but they won't allow them to score as often as the Colts score because the Colts will score a lot.

"They didn't have to show their hand today,'' Shanahan conceded when asked who had the advantage in this situation.

They didn't, but they've shown it all year long. It's Peyton Manning's throwing hand to the receiving hands of Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, Brandon Stokley, Marcus Pollard and Dallas Clark. Plus, there's the running feet of Edgerrin James, who might have won the rushing title had he not rushed to the sidelines early and stayed there Sunday.

James won't do that in the rematch, which is one reason the Broncos won't be rushing too far into the playoffs. The other is named Peyton because he'll be throwing footballs in Peyton's Place, which is any domed field in January.

While the Colts and Chargers fight to advance against the Broncos and Jets, sitting at home will be arguably the two best teams in football — the Steelers and Patriots. Pittsburgh is in reasonably good health and has a week to rest before trying to prove its 15-1 record means something.

The Patriots are not in good health with their secondary and leading defensive lineman Richard Seymour banged up and that is not how one wants to go into a game against the high-powered Colts' offense, but since that offense hasn't beaten them at home since Manning took over, they'll take their chances.

The Steelers feel the same way about the Chargers-Jets winner, although San Diego is arguably the AFC's hottest team. The biggest difference between the Chargers and its scalding NFC counterparts is that, unlike the Saints and Panthers, San Diego is actually in the playoffs. Unlike the Broncos and the Jets, they will stay there for a while, too.

Ron Borges writes regularly for NBCSports.com and covers the NFL and boxing for the Boston Globe.

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