TIME: Saturday, 8 p.m. ET, ABC

PLAYERS TO WATCH
Jets: The book says the main Jets are quarterback Chad Pennington, accurate but not a deep threat, and leading NFL rusher Curtis Martin. On a very good defense, middle linebacker Jonathan Vilma is strong and fast and one of the best rookies in the league. A lot will depend on whether pass-rushing end John Abraham’s bum knee is ready. Cornerback Donnie Abraham, burned often by the Rams, will be under the microscope. But the biggest Jet to watch won’t be on the field. That’s offensive coordinator Paul Hackett, a man criticized as being too conservative and predictable and the real root of the Jets’ problems. If he comes calling two runs, a short pass and a punt, that could be the game.

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Chargers: The Bolts are the surprise of the season in the AFC and probably in the entire NFL. And much of the credit goes to quarterback Drew Brees. When the season started, it wasn’t even clear he was the best quarterback on the team. Now, he’s one of the better quarterbacks in the league, with 27 touchdowns against just seven interceptions and a 65.5 percent completion percentage; he has been sacked just 18 times. One of the reasons Brees is so good is LaDainian Tomlinson, one of the best all-around backs in the league and the team’s leading rusher and second-leading receiver. The Chargers’ defense depends on a couple of top-level linebackers, Donnie Edwards, who leads the team in tackles and interceptions, and Steve Foley, who leads in sacks.

The Jets win if . . .
The Jets won the first meeting of these two back in Week 2, 34-28. The key was whacking Brees early and giving him a concussion that contributed to his throwing two interceptions and eventually being replaced by Doug Flutie. The Jets also controlled the ball, with Martin rushing for more than 100 yards. It’s a good formula – knock Brees out, or at least addle him a bit, and run, run, run. It worked once, it could again.

The Chargers win if . . .
They need to do what they didn’t do against the Jets in that first game: run effectively. It’s not easy against the Jets’ defense, but it’s the surest way to control the game and to allow Brees to hit some big plays against the Jets’ sometimes suspect corners.

The Jets lose if . . .
If Paul Hackett goes conservative and doesn’t open up the offense, the Jets will be in trouble against a better offensive team. But what will kill the Jets are turnovers. They take pretty good care of the ball, but if Pennington throws a couple of picks and Martin puts it on the ground, the Jets can’t win.

The Chargers lose if. . .
Forget the game in September. Brees is a lot better than he showed then and the Chargers are, too. They don’t have to do anything heroic, but they do have to protect the ball and control the clock. If the ground game gets stuffed – I mean really stuffed – and if Brees has to throw every down, the Jets – particularly if Abraham is healthy – will get to him and force mistakes or knock him out of the game. If that happens, Jets win.

Prediction
The Jets will play tough defense and the offense will score, but it won’t be enough against the best Chargers team we’ve seen in years. Tomlinson and Brees’ downfield passing will make the difference, especially in San Diego, where the weather will be a lot more conducive to big-play football than the Jets are used to in their New Jersey home. Chargers, 24-17.

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