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Jimmie Johnson's talent, and the experience he gained vying for a championship last season will lead him to a Cup title in 2005, predicts Allen Bestwick of NBCSports.com.

The competition in NASCAR is so close these days it's really hard to make any kind of educated guess on the racing end of things. And as quickly as NASCAR’s new administrators have moved to make major changes to the structure of the sport, things none of us can see coming now might turn out to be the highlight of the new season. Still, predict I will, so here are ten things to watch for in 2005.

Before
we begin
Some of the predictions are of the usual type, and a few others a little more on the fun side. And they come with a challenge: write down your own predictions for each of the ten categories, set them aside, and let’s compare notes when the 2005 season ends. 

The champion
The most difficult thing of all to predict is who will win the championship, especially now with NASCAR’s Chase format creating a playoff over the final 10 races.

Yet, I’ll venture a guess: Jimmie Johnson.

I believe in the theory that you have to lose a title to win one.

The pressure involved in a championship fight must be experienced to be understood, and must be understood to be properly dealt with and overcome.

Johnson and his team went through the grind in 2004, and made their share of mistakes along the way, but they also won eight times and finished second in the Chase.

Armed with that experience, I expect Johnson to be hard to handle in 2005.

While he won’t win as many races this year as he did in 2004, he also won’t suffer as many problems and repeat some of the mistakes of a year ago either.

Eliminating the bad finishes while contending to win races will be the key that unlocks the trophy case for Johnson come November.

Most wins in 2005
This one will belong to Ryan Newman, I think.

“Rocket Man” and his team racked up eight wins in 2003, then “struggled” to a pair of victories in 2004

Most people would consider a two-win season fantastic, but after winning eight times, a pair of trophies was something of a letdown. 

Look for Newman and company to visit Victory Lane on a much more frequent basis in 2005, my fearless prediction being seven times.

I especially look for Newman and company to be strong on the 1.5-mile tracks from Charlotte, Texas and Atlanta to Chicago, Kansas and Las Vegas. 

Although Jimmie Johnson won eight times during 2004, keeping that kind of momentum going is very difficult as Newman found out last year.

Johnson will be a huge factor in the championship chase, but where winning the most races is concerned, Newman will be the man.

Point position gain
Which driver and team will gain the most positions in the championship standings from 2004 to 2005?

How about Ricky Rudd and the Wood Brothers, who finished 2004 in 24th place, but will come very close to making the Chase in 2005.

Dismal would be a kind word for describing most of 2004 where Rudd was concerned.

The team simply couldn’t get things going and produce any consistent results.

Then something changed with the addition of a new crew chief, Michael McSwain.

When “Fatback” joined the group, there seemed to be a wholesale change in attitude, and the results began to trickle in.

Note I say trickle because besides Rudd's Kansas runner-up finish, the going was still tough.

Still, instead of finishing in the 20s or 30s in races, Rudd was finishing in the teens, a decent improvement considering the schedule allows no time for retooling a fleet of cars during the season.

I look for Rudd and company to be steady, consistent performers in 2005, win a race, and be in the hunt for the final spot in the Chase next September at Richmond when the drivers for the 10-race Cup playoff are finalized.

That will be quite an accomplishment for one of the sport’s most decorated teams.

Glorious farewells
The 2005 season will be the last in competition for two of the sport’s most accomplished drivers, Mark Martin and Rusty Wallace.

I look for both drivers to go out with successful campaigns.

Martin scored one win in 2004, but could have had a few more.

I predict he will visit Victory Lane twice in his final season, and qualify for the Chase.

It would be absolutely fantastic if Martin could win the Cup championship in 2005 as there is no driver more deserving of a title, and it will be a tremendously disappointing if Martin retires without one of those big trophies in his possession.

As for Wallace, look for him to add to his win total in 2005, and I think one victory will come at Martinsville.

I just can’t see Wallace's “Last Call” not including one more grandfather clock trophy from a track where he’s run so well.

Can Wallace qualify for the Chase in 2005?

Tough question, I think it’ll be close.

Best new combination
With all of the shuffling among drivers, teams and crew chiefs, what will 2005's most successful new combination be? 

This is a tough one.

I’m stuck on the Dale Earnhardt, Inc. change that made Tony Eury, Jr. the new crew chief for Michael Waltrip, and Pete Rondeau, who finished 2004 as Waltrip’s crew chief, the new headman for Junior’s effort in 2005.

With the success Junior has enjoyed, splitting him from his long-time team is a gamble.

At the same time, it’s also a challenge to both parties to prove their worth.

Both driver and crew chief now will be scrutinized as to how they perform apart, much the same way Jeff Gordon was judged upon Ray Evernham’s departure from the No. 24 team a few years ago. 

I think this move will prove to be a positive one for both parties, Tony Eury Jr. will get results with Michael Waltrip, and Junior will continue to perform in his new surroundings.

There may be moments of doubt early in the season, but by year’s end this will turn out to be the best new combination and DEI management will be smiling a lot.

Longest running controversy
Here’s one theme that will run throughout the 2005 season: A debate over whether Nextel Cup Series drivers and teams should compete in Busch Series races.

In 2005 you will see even more Nextel Cup Series drivers doing double duty, racing on both Saturday and Sunday.

You will also see more of the cars those drivers are using fielded by their Nextel Cup Series teams.

Why?

Track time and tires.

NASCAR continues to limit track time on race weekends, and the new “impound” procedure to be used in about half of the coming year’s races will further limit the number of laps teams have to prepare their cars for a race.

On top of that, with the small changes made to Goodyear’s racing tires between visits to a different tracks, drivers are finding the added practice and racing laps they gain by also running a NASCAR Busch Series event to be very helpful in gaining the feel of a tire, and what its handling tendencies will be over the course of a race.

As more and more Nextel Cup drivers and teams compete in these Busch races, it becomes harder for the teams only running in the Busch Series to be competitive, which in my opinion has long-term negative ramifications for the series.

Look for this to be a season-long debate, which NASCAR will end up having to deal with sometime during the year.

Profanity over-under
It will happen at some point -- a driver using unfortunate language during an on-air interview after a race.

You may not actually hear it because of the five-second delay, but it will happen, and you will read about it, with NASCAR taking punitive action as it did with Dale Earnhardt Jr. after his Talladega slip of the tongue last October.

How many times will it happen?

I’m going to set the over-under at four.

In my opinion, on four different occasions during 2005 a driver will be penalized for running afoul of this rule.

Most are likely to happen after an on-track crash or altercation.

I don’t see any Victory Lane issues cropping up.

The key question becomes how important will the point deductions be in the battle to make the Chase?

First-time winner
Who will be the first driver to score his first Cup series victory in 2005?

That’s pretty easy, Kasey Kahne.

After five runner-up finishes during his rookie campaign, Kahne is poised to crack the winner’s circle early in 2005.

I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he won the Daytona 500 to open the year.

Once Kahne gets that first win, there will be more to follow.

Rookie of the Year
It will be pretty hard to keep Kyle Busch from being the 2005 Raybestos Rookie of the Year.

He’s obviously very talented, is with an outstanding organization, Hendrick Motorsports, and like his brother, Kurt, the 2004 Cup champion, will enjoy his share of success in the sport in years to come.

My only question about Kyle’s season will be the balance between patience and frustration where results are concerned.

Kyle has enjoyed pretty instant success at every level of racing he’s been in so far, but Nextel Cup will indeed be different.

Results will be much harder to come by, and it will be a challenge for Kyle not to get down on himself or his team as he adjusts to the tougher competition at NASCAR’s highest level.

Quiet off the track
There were so many major changes made to the very structure of the sport in 2004, from the new system to determine the Cup champion to a new series sponsor, new fuel supplier, and also schedule changes, and even a new chief executive.

All were huge headlines for the sport that had nothing to do with what happened between the green and checkered flags on Sunday afternoons.

With so many big changes coming so close together, I look for NASCAR to take a more low-key approach to 2005.

Changes and adjustments will be few and far between, things will be allowed to play out for a bit with the on-track racing dominating the headlines.