Attempting to pick the winner of the Kentucky Derby months before the race is run is nearly as difficult as breeding the victor, but recent history offers clues that could lead the adventurous future book bettor to a rewarding payday on the first Saturday in May.

It will take two things to collect a bundle in this year’s early wagering on the Run for the Roses on May 7.

The first is luck. Even if you wager on the most talented horse, plenty can go wrong before and during the race, including injury, tardy physical or mental development, poor management, adverse conditions on race day, a rough trip in the big race, etc.

Although that factor is out of the handicapper’s control, the second is not. It lies in recognition of recent changes in how owners and trainer approach the Triple Crown races and a willingness to go against the herd by ignoring the hopefuls who accomplished the most as 2-year-olds – horses such as Declan’s Moon, Afleet Alex, Wilko, Proud Accolade and Roman Ruler.

Lessons from past five winners
The wisdom of such an approach is amply illustrated by looking at the past five winners of the Derby: Smarty Jones, Funny Cide, War Emblem, Monarchos and Fusaichi Pegasus.

Whereas handicappers are accustomed to focusing on horses who were winners – or at least ran competitively – in important stakes races for 2-year-olds when trying to suss out the following year’s Derby winner, that approach has not worked the past five years.

Of the five, only Smarty Jones and Funny Cide won any stakes race at 2; the former the lightly regarded Pennsylvania Nursery Stakes and the latter the obscure in the B.F. Bongard Stakes at Belmont Park.

Even more surprising to those using the yardstick of old, two winners – Fusaichi Pegasus and Monarchos – were still winless heading into their 3-year-old campaigns.

An interesting corollary is that none of the five ran in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, which often is key in determining 2-year-old honors but has proven to be the kiss of death in terms of the Triple Crown.

Also worth noting is that although Smarty Jones and Funny Cide stamped themselves as superior racehorses by running triple-digit Beyer speed figures at 2, other winners waited until well into their 3-year-old campaigns to show their stuff. War Emblem earned a best Beyer of 83 in three starts as a juvenile while winning a 1-mile allowance race at the Fair Grounds, and Monarchos’ best was a paltry 69 earned when checking in third in a maiden sprint.

The lesson from the relative lack of early accomplishment of recent winners becomes more clear when you add that none of the five raced more than three times at 2 – sketchy experience indeed when compared to the ironhorses of yesteryear such as Secretariat, who raced nine times as a juvenile.

The bottom line here – and that one that could add substantially to the betting bottom line come May 7 – is that owners and trainers are being much more cautious with their Derby prospects, in hopes of securing sky-high breeding fees for their horse and in recognition of the increasing fragility of the modern American thoroughbred.

Look for fresh faces
That means handicappers hoping for a big future book score must be extra-alert in the coming weeks in watching for lightly raced, improving horses coming out of maiden and allowance races or running at second-tier racetracks such as Philadelphia Park (Smarty Jones’ homecourt).

Also watch for inexperienced horses who gained seasoning in some of the major 2-year-old stakes without making enough noise to kill their future book price.

To get you started looking for some less-heralded horses with solid prospects next spring, here are six youngsters who caught my eye in abbreviated campaigns in 2004:

• Fusaichi Samarai –This Neil Drysdale-trained son of Fusaichi Pegasus fits the lightly raced criteria to a T. He was very impressive in his debut at Hollywood Park on Dec. 11, earning a 92 Beyer despite being geared down. Alas, word that he may be the second coming of his daddy fled the barn long ago, as he was bet down from 225-1 to 15-1 in future wagering at Bally’s race book in Las Vegas before making his first start.
• Defer – Shug McGaughey-trained son of Danzig won Grade III Laurel Futurity at Pimlico by two lengths in November. He’s 2-for-3 and is bred to relish the classic distances.
• Giacomo – Good-looking son of Holy Bull finished second to Declan’s Moon in the Hollywood Futurity on Dec. 19. That was the fourth start of his career and first against stakes-level competition, and the John Shirreffs trainee seems certain to improve as the distances get longer.
• Galloping Grocer – This New York-bred colt, trained by Dominick Schettino, suffered the first setback of his four-race career when beaten a head by the highly regarded Rockport Harbor in the Remsen Stakes on Nov. 27. His early success probably earned him too much attention to offer much future book value, but a month or two away from the track and a little-known trainer might compensate enough to make him playable.
• Lost in the Fog – Northern California-based colt trained by solid and underestimated horseman Greg Gilchrist romped to the easiest of victories in the Arizona Juvenile Stakes at Turf Paradise on Dec. 26. He earned a 102 Beyer figure in his lone previous start, a maiden-allowance race at Golden Gate Fields on Nov. 14, and could be any kind.
• Texcess – Captured the $1 million Delta Jackpot at Louisiana’s Delta Downs by 1½ lengths over Closing Argument on Dec. 4 after winning the California Cup Juvenile while still a maiden. Paul Aguirre-trained gelding is pointing toward the California road to the Derby, with a start in the Grade 2 San Rafael Stakes at Santa Anita on Jan. 15 rated a possibility.