ATHENS, Greece - I hate to disappoint everyone who’s swallowed the hype, but Michael Phelps probably isn’t going to win eight gold medals in these Olympics. But if he doesn’t, at least it won’t be because he failed to rise to the occasion.

We know that much after one day of racing. Phelps walked into an Olympic aquatic center frying under the harsh Athenian sun. He was carrying an enormous load of expectation on his broad shoulders.

He shambled out with an aw-shucks sort of smile on his 19-year-old face, a crown of olive leaves on his head, a bouquet of flowers in his arms, a gold medal around his neck, and yet another world record in the books.

It hadn’t even been a real race. After the first leg of the 400-meter individual medley, the butterfly leg, the rest of the field was swimming for second place. On the next leg, the backstroke, Phelps looked like a guy lying on his couch, his face betraying no effort, his head motionless, his strokes as smooth as a three-card monte dealer.

His nearest pursuer, fellow American Erik Vendt, was 3.4 seconds behind, the sort of margin you’d expect in a high school meet but not in the Olympics. At the end, Phelps hugged Vendt, pumped a fist, shouted, "Yeah, man!" and then, "Yeah, baby!" his excitement prompted more by the one-two finish for the United States than for his own accomplishment.

Afterwards, on the medal stand, he smiled a lot but didn’t go crazy about one medal. He was happy, but he wasn’t elated. There was, after all, a lot more to do.

One race — especially this one at which he is clearly the world’s best — doesn’t mean he’s going to win the next seven. But at least there is no question about the kid’s nerves. He doesn’t seem to have any.

Think about that load of hype he carried into the stadium. The cover of Time. The cover of Sports Illustrated. Front-page features in every newspaper in the country. Countless television reports. And every one of them trumpeting his quest to boldly go where not even Mark "Seven Golds" Spitz has gone before.

He was anointed an American Hero before he got here, and that’s a notoriously fickle business to be in. Remember the short-track speed-skating guy who was supposed to win four golds at the Salt Lake Olympics? I don’t either. And I don’t have to, because he didn’t win them.

When you say you’re going for records, Americans demand that you get them. Not a lot of people have signed endorsement deals for finishing second.

EIGHT MEDALS FOR MICHAEL PHELPS Medal date Event Result Sat, Aug 14 400 individual medley Gold (WR) Sun, Aug 15 400 freestyle relay Bronze Mon, Aug 16 200 freestyle Bronze Tue, Aug 17 200 butterfly Gold Tue, Aug 17 800 freestyle relay Gold Thur, Aug 19 200m individual medley Gold (OR) Fri, Aug 20 100 butterfly Gold (OR) Sat, Aug 21 400 medley relay Gold (WR)

Phelps might be too young to realize what’s at stake. More likely, he’s just one of those one-in-a-billion people who have supreme talent and the confidence to go with it.

At the same time, there’s not a lick of arrogance in him. He didn’t pose or run around the stadium waving a flag. He just grinned and walked — shuffled, almost — out, stopping for every request for a picture, utterly unbothered by the biggest stage in the world.

After one race, it’s clear he has the mental makeup to pull it off. But it’s still a prodigious task, with the deck stacked against him.

The kid’s 19, and the world of swimming has changed a lot in the 32 years since Spitz made the splash heard ‘round the world in Munich. Back then, you could count the world’s swimming powers on the fingers of one hand. Under the amateur rules then in effect, it was a sport for kids who did their Olympic thing and then went on to real life.

I’m not saying what Spitz did was easy. If it were, someone else would have matched or surpassed him by now. But Spitz’ task was not as daunting as what faces Phelps.

All you had to do was look at the starting field for the final. Only the United States had two swimmers in the race, and Australia, the world’s other great swimming power, had just one. Time was when each would have had at least two, and one would have had three.

The other swimmers were from Italy, Greece, Hungary, Japan, and Tunisia. Did I say Tunisia? Do they even have water there?

Thirty-two years ago, most of these countries didn’t turn out world-class swimmers. But they’re just the start. The whole world is getting into this Olympics thing, building facilities, establishing training programs, going for the gold.

And no one has to quit after one shot to get a real job. Phelps already has an Escalade to drive around in. It’s a used Escalade, but most 19-year-olds will take that ride in a heartbeat. In the 200-meter freestyle, the event in which his chances of losing an individual race are the greatest, Phelps will face Ian Thorpe of Australia, the best freestyler in the world, back for a second Olympics, bigger and stronger than he was when he became an Australian hero four years ago.

In the three relays he plans to swim, he can’t win unless the team does. And the Australians are awfully good.

So hope for eight golds, but don’t expect them. And rest assured that, if it doesn’t happen for Michael Phelps, it will be because the pool is too deep, the task too great, and not because he doesn’t have the mental and physical wherewithal to pull it off.

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