Four years ago, U.S. Olympic track coaches agreed the team had underachieved at the Sydney Games, capturing an all-time low of 20 medals. With the Athens competition set to begin, the question on many minds is how the U.S. is going to do this time around.

The forecast: about the same, but not for the reasons you might think. The perception of many has been that the BALCO doping scandal and the steady flow of disqualifications this year has eaten into America's supply of medal candidates. Truth is, the U.S. Anti-Doping Agency's quest to send a clean team to Athens has done more collateral damage to the sport’s image than actual damage to the squad's prospects in the Olympics.

In the public eye, the biggest name to get knocked out so far has been Regina Jacobs. With her retirement coming just in time for her to miss USADA throwing the book at her, the distance runner may have hoped for a bit of pity. However, her departure is no great loss to the U.S. and its medal hopes. Despite her occasional medal, Jacobs far too often disappeared in heats — or just before the start of meets — without adequate explanation.

Measuring losses
The biggest loss is a name that isn’t so well known: Michelle Collins. She’s quite a good 400 runner, and some would have called her a strong medal possibility in Athens. However, that event is undergoing a dramatic changing of the guard, and the U.S. squad competing in the one-lapper is a young and very strong one. Collins might have gained the U.S. a few tenths of a second in the 4x400 relay, but it remains to be seen if her departure will cost the team a gold.

The minor characters? Forget them. Non-factors, or easy to replace.

All the same, the team's hopes for winning more than 20 medals in Greece are not as strong as they should be. Why?

For one, the rest of the world is better at track than it ever has been before. Africa’s distance runners have become the behemoth that observers predicted when they first started emerging in the 1960s and ‘70s. Sprinters from the Caribbean and Africa now have access to the training techniques that helped the U.S. rule in speed events for decades. Those techniques usually come courtesy of a track scholarship to an American college.

Track's ruling body, the International Association of Athletic Federations, has also been very successful in channeling greater TV revenues and sponsorship fees into Third World athletic development programs. We are seeing more and more evidence that these investments are paying off.

Finally, there is the factor that no one wants to talk about: Are U.S. athletes the only ones using drugs in track? It’s a hard question to answer without hard facts; after a few decades in the sport, most journalists still have to rely on anecdotal and circumstantial evidence, covered with a healthy gravy of hunch.

Yet I can say with a degree of confidence that doping is not solely an American problem. It’s just that, like Canada in the months after Ben Johnson's tainted win at the Seoul Olympics, the U.S. is on the front burner. The eyes of the world are watching, perhaps even more so because of the slide of American popularity since the Iraq War began. USADA has no choice but to do its best to try to send a clean Olympic team to Athens. It’s probably an easier task than giving us a clean World Series.

Men's chances
How well will the U.S. score in these Olympics? Let’s look at the men's contenders:

Sprints: In speed events, the U.S. is as strong as ever. The men’s team is as good as any American team that ever swept the medals. However, the rest of the world is better too.

Jamaica's Asafa Powell will be challenged by Maurice Greene, Justin Gatlin and Shawn Crawford, all potential gold medalists. If the Americans get their stickwork together with Coby Miller, they should be golden in the relay as well. The Crawford-led 200 squad should be able to nab one or two medals, the beneficiaries of an injury to Jamaican Usain Bolt, the erstwhile gold medal favorite.

Things are not so clear-cut for the 400 squad. Loaded with talent, they are led by Jeremy Wariner, a Baylor star who has been racing hard since the indoor season. Can he maintain a peak until nearly Labor Day? His probable teammates on the 4x400 relay squad are also young and generally unseasoned. For them to beat Jamaica and the other top contenders may be a challenge. Medal tally: 5-7 medals

Distance: In the longer runs, American hopes tire easily. The team's 800 runners are second-tier athletes internationally. One of them will need to run the race of his life to get a medal. In the 1500, Alan Webb has a legitimate shot to make the finals; depending on how that race plays out, just about anyone in it has a chance. Steeple, 5000, 10,000, and marathon? Stock up on party supplies, because if any American scores it will be cause for serious celebration. Don’t expect any medals in the walks, either.  Medal tally: 0-2 medals

Hurdles: The hurdles like Americans, just not as much as they used to. In both the 110s and the 400s, every U.S. hurdler has a serious medal shot. Expect some of the medals to go to folks like China’s Liu Xiang, who recently ran a 13.06 that would have won the U.S. trials. In the 400 hurdles, any U.S. medals will likely come behind the gold that may already be engraved for Felix Sanchez of the Dominican Republic. Medal tally: 3-4 medals

Jumps: Without a reliable athlete like a Dwight Stones or Carl Lewis on hand, the jumps are tough to predict for the U.S. team. In the high jump or pole vault, call a medal an outside chance. In the long jump, Dwight Phillips is a real contender. The American triple jumpers went wild at the trials in Sacramento. If they can reproduce that form in Athens, they’ll do great. So far, though, no sign of it. Medal tally: 1-3 medals

Strength events: The Americans dominate the shot, but not everyone will be ready on the day, so look for only one or two medals. The discus, by nature, is much less reliable. Forget the hammer, but pray that Breaux Greer has some knees left for the javelin, where he could score if healthy. The American decathletes, specifically Bryan Clay and Tom Pappas, are both worthy medal contenders. Medal tally: 2-5 medals

That leaves the American men looking at 11-21 medals. That 21 is for a hypothetical miraculous team performance, unlikely to happen so far from home when athletes are dealing with new foods, new terrorist threats, and all the other factors that make predicting an Olympics a lot like prognosticating the lottery.

Gary Hershorn / Reuters Gail Devers is competing in her fifth Games. Even at 37, she gives the U.S. a good shot at winning a hurdles medal.

Women's chances
The U.S. women scored seven medals in Sydney, and five of those had a lot to do with Marion Jones. This time around, Jones is a likely medalist in the long jump.

Sprints: LaTasha Colander is the real deal in the 100, though she has been dogged by her own set of rumors. Lauryn Williams may be a little tired from the college season, and Torri Edwards was banned from the Games. And all the confusion surrounding the U.S. relay team won’t help its chances much, though it should medal if team members — whoever they are — can get the stick around the track.

This leaves Christine Arron of France feeling more confident than ever in the 100, as the world has seen little to convince it that Bulgaria’s 10.77 sprinter, Ivet Lalova, is for real. In the 200, any of the three top Americans, led by Allyson Felix, may have a chance. Monique Hennagan should medal in the 400, and be part of a medal-winning 4x400 team. Medal tally: 3-5

Distance: In the long runs, Nicole Teter looks like she has an outside shot at an 800 medal. Suzy Favor-Hamilton might have had a chance in the 1,500, but injuries kept her from guaranteeing herself a place on the squad. The only other medal hope is Deena Kastor in the marathon, but in a freaky hot-weather event, no one’s betting real money on anyone. Medal tally: 0-1

Hurdles: Thanks to Gail Devers and Sheena Johnson, American hurdlers look great this year. Joanna Hayes could join Devers on the medal stand in the 100 hurdles, and any of the team's entrants in the 400s have a shot. Medal tally: 2-4

Jumps:  The U.S. high jumpers have only an outside shot, but Stacy Dragila would surprise if she didn’t at least medal in the pole vault. With Jones perhaps nabbing one in the long jump, that would be the extent of realistic field event hopes. Even in the heptathlon, the former domain of legend Jackie Joyner-Kersee, the U.S. is shooting blanks these days. Medal tally: 1-2

That leaves the women looking at 6-12 medals.

My grandmother used to say that no one likes a pessimist, but my grandfather would always add, “That’s the way to bet.” Look for the U.S. to be very lucky to top the 20 medals earned in Sydney. And the BALCO investigation, in the end, will have had little effect on the team, other than to explain the black eye.

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