Thierry Roge / REUTERS

Spain's Iban Mayo, left, is chased by Lance Armstrong, center, during the Dauphine Libere, a Tour de France preparation race, on June 12.

With the possibility of a record-shattering sixth straight victory on the line, it’s not an exaggeration to say this might be the most eagerly anticipated Tour de France in history. So, of course, the question on everyone’s mind is: can Lance do it? And if not, who could stop him?

Predicting the outcome is an exercise in bluster and futility. It’s no trouble to I.D. the favorites, but prognostications about their finishing order at this point is simply hot air. The truth is, until the Tour hits the first mountain stage on July 14, there’s no way to gauge relative fitness between individual combatants.

What is more of a sure thing is predicting which stages of this year’s Tour will be must-see events, the stages that will shake up the overall standings. So instead of hammering you with some meaningless results forecast, we’ll name this year’s major players, and the stages where they’ll make their big scenes.

Lance Armstrong
Lance is the odds-on favorite, for a lot of reasons. He has the proven track record, a team organization that’s purpose-built for this three-week showdown, and he’s no stranger to the pressures of being in the lead. Where others might crumble under the strain of repeated attacks on the yellow jersey, he and his squad know precisely how to respond, because they’ve been there.

The only question is fitness. At 32, Armstrong is near the end of his physical peak. Last year’s Tour saw his first significant defeat in an individual time trial since he began his win streak. And just last month, he was bested in two time trials by Iban Mayo and Tyler Hamilton, both of whom will challenge for the yellow jersey.

Armstrong isn't the power rider he was two years ago, but will he have enough power?

Jan Ullrich
The German is, arguably, the most physically talented racer to ever ride the Tour. He is also possibly the most unmotivated professional racer in history, and successful only because of his immense physical gifts.

Daniel Maurer / AP Germany's Jan Ullrich won the Tour de France in 1997 and has finished in second place five times.

Ullrich is the only man competing this year besides Armstrong to stand on the Tour’s top step, winning the event in 1997. Ullrich has never finished lower than second, which is amazing in itself.

He is a powerful all-round cyclist, a former world champion in the time trial, and a formidable climber. His T-Mobile squad is, man for man, the strongest team in the field, and includes world No. 2 Erik Zabel.

Tyler Hamilton
The New Englander could make the final podium a dual American affair. Hamilton labored as one of Armstrong’s lieutenants on the Postal squad, so he knows what it’s like to be on the leader’s team when the pressure’s on. His fourth-place finish last year proved he has what it takes to be a team leader, and he did it after breaking his collar bone in two places in the 35-rider pile-up in the first stage.

Hamilton will be a force, armed with the self-confidence of last year’s strong showing, and good finishes in both time trials at last month’s Dauphine Libere stage race, where he finished ahead of Armstrong. His Phonak squad was hand-picked with the express purpose of putting him in yellow this July, and while they are relatively untried as a squad, they have proven themselves at Tour warm-ups like the Dauphine Libere. If he can remain healthy, he’ll be a bigger factor than ever.

Iban Mayo
Iban Mayo hails from Spain’s Basque country, and while the diminutive cyclist isn’t the hulking powerhouse of countryman (and five-time Tour winner) Miguel Indurain, he is just as deadly in the mountains, a pure climber. Mayo is on form this year, taking the top spot in last month’s Dauphine Libere prologue and in the mountaintop time trial, both uphill slogs that may foreshadow the greatness to come in the Tour’s mountains this year.

Ivan Basso
Physically, Ivan Basso’s CSC Tiscali squad may not be the strongest. But tactically, this is the team of the moment. Led by former Tour winner Bjarne Riis, perhaps the savviest director sportif in the business, CSC is the well-oiled machine other squads aspire to become. This is the squad that nurtured Hamilton when he left USPS, and they know how to run a Tour campaign. Basso is a strong rider, and may not be enough of a heavy to be marked by the major players. If ignored long enough to amass a lead, his team could hold the maillot jaune all the way to Paris.

Roberto Heras
Roberto Heras shares Hamilton’s inside knowledge of how Armstrong’s Postal Service team operates, as he was Armstrong’s designated climber before he split to join the Liberty Seguros squad. Because he’s regarded as a pure climber, Heras may not be perceived as a general threat on general classification and could be allowed to escape on a mountain stage. However, Heras is a respectable time trialist, for a climber, and could make a podium spot and be a bit of an X factor in the favorites’ strategy. Given a big enough lead in the mountains, Heras could possibly hold on to the Champs-Elysees.

Stage 4 — Wednesday, July 7
The team time trial is only 64.5 kilometers, and relatively flat. It’s unlikely there will be much of a time gap between the favorites after this stage, but this year’s Tour is expected to be close, and a minute’s lead here could spell the difference. Postal is the favorite, but Ullrich’s T-Mobile squad has horsepower to spare, and could squeak a win and possibly put the German in yellow. Hamilton’s Phonak squad and Basso’s CSC-Tiscali team will be strong, but aren’t likely to post fast time of day.

Stage 10 — Wednesday, July 14
This is the first stage with significant climbing, a 237-km run with three decently sized climbs. It’s an intriguing stage for a number of reasons, all of which could affect the overall race for the lead:

• It’s early in the race, so the favorites may spend too much time marking each other and let a nobody go up the road. If a strong unknown manages to put in a lot of time on the favorites he could win in Paris.
• The climbs aren’t super long or sustained, so climbers won’t have an advantage here. In fact, teams could keep the pace high on the flats and on the run-ups into the climbs, which would not only nullify a climber’s advantage on this stage, but could make his legs overly heavy by denying him enough rest to fully recover for the mountaintop finish on stage 12, two days later.
• It’s the longest day of the tour, and possibly one of the hottest. If there’s a day when tactical mistakes come to haunt you, this could be it.

Stage 12 — Friday, July 16
A relatively flat run for 150 kilometers turns brutal, with two major climbs in the closing kilometers. Expect to see the favorites stretch their legs and try to establish a psychological advantage as they mark each other on the climbs. It’s an early mountain stage, so it could be anybody’s race. This is where we’ll see who’s got the legs to be a contender.

Stage 13 — Saturday, July 17
A heavy climbing day, which will separate the men from the boys, and show who has the energy for sustained attacks. Most of the favorites will probably save themselves for stage 16’s mountain time trial, but Heras, Mayo or Basso may make a move here. With six significant climbs and a mountaintop finish, today could determine the ultimate finishing order in Paris.

Stage 15 — Tuesday July 20
Six significant climbs over the day’s 179km stage make this one tough. Tactically, this is an important stage because overreaching on today’s climbs could spell disaster in the next day’s uphill time trial. The racing probably won’t begin in earnest until they hit the slopes of the Col des Limouches, approximately halfway through the stage. Pure climbers like Mayo and Heras may try to have a go of it, knowing they’ll have an advantage the next day, but the pressure will be on Ullrich, Armstrong and Hamilton to cover each other’s attacks and show they’ve got the goods to go all the way to Paris in yellow.

Stage 16 — Wednesday July 21
Today’s 15.5km mountain time trial ascends l’Alpe d’Huez, one of the tour’s most legendary climbs. This is the most anticipated stage of le Tour, a test of pure power, and one so critical for results Armstrong climbed the peak over and over in May, to learn its every contour. The climb is sustained, steep, and not very even so good pacing is key. Psychologically, this may be the most important day of the race, as a win here makes the statement that you’re the strongest man in the field.

Stages 17-18 — Thursday-Friday, July 22-23
While these are technically climbing stages, they probably won’t figure much in general classification because the climbs come too soon, and they’re relatively flat to the finish. A leader who loses time on the climbs should be able to make up time before the finish. But if a top contender has lost too many team members in previous mountain stages, he could be vulnerable to an attack since his team won’t be able to pull him to the finish.

Stage 19 — Saturday July 24
The final time trial, and the penultimate day. Traditionally, you won’t see big deficits opened up over the course of this flat, 55km stage, simply because the riders are so cooked. If the racing has been close, and the leaders are within striking distance of each other this could be the most exciting day of the race. But if leadership has been sewn up during the previous days of racing, this time trial could be a mere formality. It will still be a spectacle, but may not figure in the overall results.