Smarty Jones may well write another chapter in his made-for-the-Big-Screen story by winning Saturday’s Preakness Stakes, but at times it makes sense to take a stand against a favorite -– especially one who will be pari-mutuelly burdened by the desires and dollars of every casual horse racing fan in the country -– and this is one of them.

Though several horses are capable of handing Smarty the first defeat of his short but illustrious career, Rock Hard Ten looks like the one best equipped to spoil the Kentucky Derby winner’s party.

To lessen the tide of angry e-mail, here's a disclaimer: Smarty Jones is a superb racehorse whose dash from obscurity and adversity to fame and financial glory has deservedly captivated the nation.

But despite his unblemished record, cool-as-a-cucumber demeanor and obvious physical talents, there are several good reasons to look elsewhere in the 1 3/16-mile Preakness, the second jewel of racing’s Triple Crown.

A golden rule of equine betting is to look for horses whose odds understate their chances of winning a particular race, just as value stock investors look for companies that are underappreciated by the market.

Smarty was initially the 8-5 morning line favorite, but he was lowered to 6-5 Friday after The Cliff’s Edge was scratched due to an abscess on his right front foot that had been bothering him since Wednesday. But expect Smarty to be at even money or less by post time 6:15 p.m. ET Saturday.

If that prediction is accurate, Smarty Jones’ chances of winning would have to be at least 60 percent to produce an acceptable profit. Another way of looking at it is if they ran the Preakness 100 times with the same horses, Smarty would have to win at least 60 races, each time rewarding his backers with the even-money payoff of $4 to produce a $40 profit from $200 wagered.

Considering that Smarty is undefeated in seven starts, that might appear to be a reasonable projection. But a closer look suggests that overstates his chances.

To begin with, it can be argued that Smarty isn’t even the fastest horse in the race.

Beyer speed figures, created by longtime Washington Post racing writer Andrew Beyer and published in the Daily Racing Form, attempt to express a horse’s performance in each race as a single figure, the higher the better.

Smarty’s best figure is a 108 earned in the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park in March. Two horses –- Lion Heart and The Cliff’s Edge -– have earned higher figures this year, 110 and 111, respectively. And five other contenders—Borrego, Eddington, Imperialism, Rock Hard Ten and Song of the Sword – have earned triple-digit Beyer figures that would place them with a few lengths of Smarty’s best effort.

In contrast, last year’s 9-5 Preakness favorite, Funny Cide, owned the two best Beyer figures in the 10-horse field and his high figure of 110 was 5 points higher than the best number earned by a competitor.

Speed figures are by no means infallible. It can be argued, for example, that Smarty has won all his races, including the Kentucky Derby, with ease and could have run faster if he needed to.

Still, in this case they don’t support the view that the Pennsylvania-bred colt towers over the competition. And in the long term, betting on a heavy favorite in a race with others that own higher or similar speed ratings is a sure path to red ink.

Further dampening my enthusiasm for the favorite was what I believe was a speed-favoring sloppy racetrack at Churchill Downs on Kentucky Derby day.

Of the nine races run on the dirt that day, all but one went to either a front-runner or a stalker with the ability to stay close to the leader in the early stages of the race – the exact strategy employed by Smarty Jones and jockey Stewart Elliott to overtake Lion Heart in midstretch in the Derby. In race after race on the card that day, closers were able to gain ground late and hit the board, but they weren’t able to catch the leaders once they got to the front in the stretch.

Further evidence suggesting the track penalized late runners can be found in the number of horses that failed to run anywhere near their best in the Derby, including Preakness entrants Borrego and Song of the Sword, both of whom earned Beyer figures in the race that were more than 20 points below their lifetime best.

The bottom line is that while Smarty Jones put to rest doubts about whether his pedigree would enable him to handle the 1 ¼ mile distance of the Derby, he only proved that he could do so under favorable circumstances. With only a chance of thundershowers in the forecast for Baltimore on Saturday, he likely will have to do it without any help if he is to win this time.

The pace of the Preakness also will probably be more testing for Smarty.

Lion Heart, the 3-1 second choice, will once more start from the rail and should set the pace in the early stages of race, just as he did in the Derby.

Smarty again figures in the second tier, along with Sir Shackleton, Eddington, Rock Hard Ten and Water Cannon.

Smarty also had company stalking Lion Heart in the early stages of the Derby, but the three horses who were flanking him -– Read the Footnotes, Pollard’s Vision and Quintons Gold rush -– all were beginning to back up by the time they reached the half-mile pole, leaving Smarty as the only stalker left to go after Lion Heart.

This time, at least two of the other pace-pressing horses –- Eddington and Rock Hard Ten -– figure to make their moves at the same time Smarty does. If that happens, Smarty won’t just have to worry about reeling in Lion Heart; he’ll have two fresh and still improving horses to contend with through the length of the stretch.

Smarty’s trainer, John Servis, alluded to just such a scenario Thursday morning outside his barn at Pimlico.

“Instead of having one horse come after Lion Heart, you might have three or four,” he said.

Servis said he considers the Preakness “the toughest race he’s ever been in,” both because of the new challengers and the fact that his colt will be running off just two weeks rest for the first time in his career.

There are other factors that could hinder Smarty, such as the lack of a timed workout between the Derby and the Preakness, a historical no-no for Preakness winners, and the unwanted distraction caused by new disclosures about Elliott’s past legal troubles. But those are minor concerns compared to the three broader question marks outlined above.

Coming to the conclusion that Smarty Jones can be beaten is only part of the equation, of course. Things really get dicey when it comes to picking the horse most capable of conquering him.

No fewer than six horses appear to have a shot at upsetting the applecart:

Lion Heart is game and consistent, but he has been run down in the stretch in all three starts this year.

Borrego finished just 1½ lengths behind Smarty Jones in the Arkansas Derby, and offers good value at 15-1 if you’re willing to overlook his poor try in the Kentucky Derby. But he, too, has three second place finishes this year and seems more likely to fill out the exacta than win.

Imperialism (5-1), ran what could have been a winning race in Kentucky, but had trouble on the first turn and then gave away about five lengths while waiting for  room on the far turn. He should get a clean trip in this smaller field and certainly merits consideration.

Eddington (8-1) didn’t run in Kentucky, but not for lack of trying. He was short on earnings in graded states after being nosed out for second in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct on April 10. He has raced greenly the last two times he has run, though, and will need to focus to get the job done.

Rock Hard Ten (6-1) is lightest on experience in the field, with just three lifetime starts, but has shown enough talent to overcome his lack of seasoning. He came up just a head short of winning the Santa Anita Derby on April 3, but was disqualified and placed third for interfering with Imperialism in the stretch. Like Eddington, that proved costly and denied him a spot in the Derby starting gate.

Two things persuaded me that Rock Hard Ten holds a slight edge:

He was very professional in the Santa Anita Derby, relaxing just behind the pace setters in the early stages of the race. He also showed some gameness in trying to fight back when Castledale roared up on his outside in deep stretch. He shied from the whip and ducked in toward the rail that day, but his connections have no doubt taken note of that tendency and won’t let it happen again.

Second, Hall of Fame jockey Gary Stevens, who rode Rock Hard Ten to victories in the first two starts of the colt’s career but wasn’t able to ride him at Santa Anita, is flying in from France to ride him. The two-time Preakness winner appears to fit the Jason Orman-trained colt perfectly and figures to ride his usual heady race.

Even after you’ve picked a likely winner, assembling a betting strategy isn’t easy with so many other possibilities in the race. But I’ll do some spreading in hopes of hitting an exotic bet or two that will make the day a success:

• $20 to win on Rock Hard Ten (at 5-1 or higher only).
• $2 exacta: Rock Hard Ten/Lion Heart, Borrego, Smarty Jones, Imperialism and Eddington. Total: $12.
• $2 exacta box: Rock Hard Ten, Smarty Jones, Imperialism and Eddington. Total: $24.
• $1 trifecta: Rock Hard Ten/Lion Heart, Borrego, Smarty Jones, Imperialism and Eddington/ Lion Heart, Borrego, Smarty Jones, Imperialism and Eddington. Total: $30.

Grand total: $86.

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