One team coming off a bye week is 0-9 ATS in the past nine seasons while another is 0-7 ATS.
Depending on your view of NFL bye week handicapping, this could be great news or just another stat line among many on the Week 6 trends listing.
Oakland visits unbeaten Atlanta as 9.5-point underdogs, but they have been the NFL’s worst bet after a bye week, losing against the spread in nine straight seasons. And they face a Falcons team that is hungry to hit its bye week with a 6-0 mark and a team that has performed profitably in this position.
In the past eight seasons, the Falcons are 7-1 ATS in the week before their bye.
“For the longest time, the best coaches had the best records coming out of bye weeks, meaning Andy Reid in Philly and Bill Belichick in Foxboro always won post-bye,” said Jack Randall, football analyst at OddsShark.com (which provides odds to NBC Sports ).
Another team staring down an ugly post-bye-week trend is Detroit. The last seven times their post-bye week was on the road, they never covered the spread. They opened as 5-point underdogs in Philadelphia, a team that is desperate for a win as it hits its bye in Week 7.
Green Bay visits Houston to face unbeaten Texans, but a few factors have many bettors siding with the Packers are 4-point underdogs. The first is Brian Cushing’s ACL tear. Houston’s rugged middle linebacker is done for the year, leaving a hole in that Texans defense.
The second is Green Bay’s awesome record as an underdog. The Packers are 11-2-1 ATS as an underdog since 2008 and they are motivated to a) make a statement against a top team and b) hang with the Bears and Vikings in the NFC North.
The other underdog ‘lock’ we see is in Miami, where the Rams opened as 3-point underdogs. While most of the trends point against St. Louis, we like the trend that shows them 5-1 ATS in six recent games as an underdog .
“We don’t like the Dolphins much at all and we see the three points for home field as not being a true representation of this game,” said Randall. “The Rams have lost 11 of 12 on the road and eight of nine against the Dolphins, but we see a Rams win here and don’t call it an upset, because they are the better team."
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