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Can dos Santos shake off the rust and launch himself to contender status? /
MMA Beat
By Ariel Helwani
NBCSports.com contributor
updated 11:44 a.m. ET June 10, 2011
Vancouver - Boy, you hate to see tough circumstances pile up like this on a guy as nice as Ariel Helwani.
Unfortunately, each time out during the last few events, I’ve been able to carve out a little more wiggle room over MMA’s leading journalist in our head-to-head picks competition. Such was the case last weekend at the “Ultimate Fighter” season 13 live finale, when I added two more fights to my overall lead, thanks to wins by Clay Guida and Tony Ferguson.
Truth be told, it was a tough night for both of us, with me finishing at a middling 7-4 and Helwani stumbling to 5-6 during a “TUF 13” show that saw more than its share of upsets. Our disappointing performances left the overall standings as follows:
Dundas: 69-35 Helwani: 62-42
In light of that, Saturday night’s UFC 131 card represents a chance at redemption. It just so happens that one of us needs it a bit more than the other. On to the picks!
Shane Carwin vs. Junior dos Santos
Chad Dundas: Admittedly, it’s unsettling that Carwin claims he’ll eschew his wrestling skills in order to slug it out with dos Santos. With those grappling skills, I think Carwin is the bigger, stronger, more complete fighter. Without them, this bout is a coin flip. Let’s hope all that talk about standing and banging was just gamesmanship. (But I doubt it.)
Prediction: Carwin by first round TKO
Ariel Helwani: What makes everyone think JDS will just buckle when/if taken down by Carwin? We have yet to see anyone enter a fight with JDS with takedowns on their mind, so it's hard to say how he will react if/when Carwin tries to take this fight to the mat. I'm not even convinced Carwin will shoot more than twice in this fight, and if this one stays standing, I like JDS' boxing much more than Carwin's. He's more technical than Carwin, and I think he will knock out "The Engineer" in the second.
Chad Dundas: Nunes is certainly no patsy for Florian’s first foray down to featherweight. With just one career loss in 17 fights, the 28-year-old Brazilian has never been finished and is coming off a split decision win over former champ Mike Brown. That said, so long as Florian isn’t sacrificing too much strength and/or stamina to make the weight cut, I think he has the tools to be a force at 145-pounds.
Prediction: Florian by unanimous decision
Ariel Helwani: That's the biggest question going into this one: how will Florian deal with the weight cut? He says he's never felt better, but who expected him to say otherwise? On paper, Florian is more well-rounded, but I think too many people are overlooking the underrated Nunes. Still, I have a hard time picking against Florian in this one, so I won't. I think he will keep the fighting standing en route to a decision win.
Prediction: Florian by unanimous decision
John Olav Einemo vs. Dave Herman
Chad Dundas: Picking a bout between two UFC rookies is always iffy, but there is a lot of anecdotal evidence pointing the way here. Einemo is 35, hasn’t fought in MMA since 2006 and was originally brought in as a comeback opponent for Carwin. Meanwhile, Herman is pretty unproven, but still possesses a 20-2 record (one loss via DQ) and the penchant for brutal knockouts the UFC typically looks for in its heavyweights. Figure matchmakers knew what they were doing here.
Prediction: Herman by second-round TKO.
Ariel Helwani: Sure, Einemo hasn't fought since 2006, but the Norwegian trains with Golden Glory -- one of the best camps in Europe -- and it's hard to ignore his grappling credentials. So in an effort to gain some ground on ol' Chad, I'm picking Einemo to win this one via submission.
Chad Dundas: Munoz’s Reign Training Center is emerging as a go-to location for pro fighters on the west coast. I expect the former NCAA champion to be impeccably conditioned and prepared to fend off Maia’s submission game. With Munoz using his wrestling skills to keep it on the feet, this one probably turns into a sloppy boxing match that the live crowd either loathes or loves. I’m leaning toward loathes.
Prediction: Munoz by unanimous decision.
Ariel Helwani: Both fighters aren't exactly naturals on their feet, but it's clear that Munoz has developed into a better striker than Maia. I would think Munoz would want to keep this fight standing, considering Maia's exceptional BJJ skills, and I think he'll catch the Brazilian in the late stages of the fight to win his third in a row.
Prediction: Munoz by third-round TKO.
Donald Cerrone vs. Vagner Rocha
Chad Dundas: Fifty percent of Rocha’s six MMA wins are by arm bar, so the gameplan seems clear for Cerrone: Stay out of the guard and don’t let Rocha get you into a prolonged scrambling session, since the guy’s BJJ highlight tapes make it look like he’s pretty deadly and creative in the open floor. Fortunately, Cerrone also knows his way around a submission or two and should be able to use his length and kickboxing skills to keep his late-notice injury replacement opponent at bay.
Prediction: Cerrone by unanimous decision.
Ariel Helwani: Dangerous fight for Cerrone, especially considering Rocha is relatively unknown to UFC fans, but I agree with your assessment. Cerrone doesn't usually fare well against wrestlers, but he can hang with BJJ players. I too think he will keep the fight standing and avoid getting caught in any tricky situations on the ground.
Prediction: Cerrone by unanimous decision.
Chad’s undercard picks: Sam Stout def. Yves Edwards Chris Weidman def. Jesse Bongfeldt Krzysztof Soszynski def. Mike Massenzio Nick Ring def. James Head Dustin Poirier def. Jason Young Aaron Rosa def. Joey Beltran Michihiro Omigawa def. Darren Elkins
Ariel's undercard picks: Sam Stout def. Yves Edwards Chris Weidman def. Jesse Bongfeldt Krzysztof Soszynski def. Mike Massenzio Nick Ring def. James Head Dustin Poirier def. Jason Young Joey Beltran def. Aaron Rosa Michihiro Omigawa def. Darren ElkinsBoy, you hate to see tough circumstances pile up like this on a guy as nice as Ariel Helwani.
UFC President Dana White (above) embarrassed after Gray Maynard beat Clay Guida by split decision to win a lightweight bout and the main event of the UFC card in Atlantic City.
