Helwani vs. Dundas: UFC 129 edition
MMA experts Chad Dundas and Ariel Helwani go head-to-head with their UFC 129 picks.
MMA Beat
By Ariel Helwani & Chad Dundas
updated 3:07 p.m. ET April 29, 2011
Toronto - What better way to introduce ourselves to the NBC Sports audience then with a good ol' fashioned Helwani vs. Dundas?
If you're unfamiliar with the competition, MMA writer Chad Dundas and I go head-to-head prior to every event with our predictions. I came back to win the 2010 season, and after a strong start in 2011, cooled off while Chad heated up.
Here's where we stand after Strikeforce: Diaz vs. Daley
Chad: 47-24
Ariel: 43-28
As you may know, UFC 129 -- the organization's biggest event in its 18-year history -- takes place Saturday night in front of 55,000 fans at Rogers Centre in Toronto.
Let's get to the picks.
Georges St-Pierre vs. Jake Shields
CD: The UFC hype machine – including comments from GSP himself – has been on a full-on blitz in recent weeks to make Shields seem like the biggest threat yet to St. Pierre’s dominance. Make no mistake, the Cesar Gracie product is certainly a Top 5 (maybe even Top 3) guy, but this is just a terrible match-up of styles for him. I expect St. Pierre to have an advantage on the feet and believe his all-around wrestling is just too dominant (not to mention athletic) for Shields to win the fight there, either.
Prediction: St. Pierre by third-round TKO.
AH: Shields is as tough as they come, but I just can't see him taking this fight to the ground, which is where he needs it to be. Even if he does score the odd takedown, he won't be able to dominate GSP on the mat like he has against his previous opponents. GSP wins all five rounds due to superior striking and his solid takedown defense en route to a unanimous decision victory.
Prediction: GSP by unanimous decision.
Jose Aldo vs. Mark Hominick
CD: If you believe the odds makers, Hominick is the biggest underdog on the main card, going off at something like +325. Even though I see this as a potential letdown fight for Aldo – long-awaited UFC debuts just have a way of disappointing, do they not? – who am I to argue with the experts? Hominick will be the more technical boxer, but Aldo’s attack will be too diverse and powerful for him to cope with.
Prediction: Aldo by first-round KO (Knees).
AH: The only way Aldo lets us down on Saturday night is if he truly isn't 100%. I'm going to take his word on this one and say he is. Aldo may be my favorite fighter to watch these days, and I could see him standing with Hominick in the first before going into full destruction mode in the second. Hominick desperately needs to keep this one standing and go to the body often. Easier said than done with Aldo.
Prediction: Aldo by second-round TKO.
Jason Brilz vs. Vladimir Matyushenko
CD: It pains me to say it because he was once the best light heavy nobody ever heard of, but I think Matyushenko is getting a little long in the tooth for this stuff. Used to be he’d beat everybody but the very, very best, but in this battle of uber-talented wrestlers I have to go with the slightly more relevant Brilz.
Prediction: Brilz by unanimous decision.
AH: I agree. Brilz has been out for almost a year, but I think a 100% Brilz is currently better than a 100% Matyushenko. "The Janitor" may be one of the more under appreciated light heavyweights in recent memory, but I see Brilz grinding out a tough fight, which will be primarily contested in the clinch and on the ground.
Prediction: Brilz by unanimous decision.
Randy Couture vs. Lyoto Machida
CD: Call me crazy – or just sentimental – but I believe The Old Man has a good chance here. Especially considering the way Machida has slumped through his last few performances and his defensive style, which I think may play well into a Couture game plan. If Randy can grab hold and grind early and often, I think you’ll see Machida tire out. Then you’ll see the ageless wonder do work.
Prediction: Couture by unanimous decision.
AH: Pick with your mind, not your heart, Chad. I too am tempted to go with Couture, but I just can't see him grabbing onto of the ever elusive Machida, which is what he needs to do. If you think Machida is going to change his style after two straight losses, think again. It will simply be too hard for Couture to close the distance on "The Dragon."
Prediction: Machida by unanimous decision.
Mark Bocek vs. Ben Henderson
CD: Maybe the most difficult fight to call on this card. Henderson should have the Toronto native outgunned in most areas, but his willingness to get caught in submissions (because most of the time he can squirm out of them) troubles me against a jiu jitsu wiz like Bocek. Bendo would be well served to keep this one at range, where I think his youth and quickness win the day.
Prediction: Henderson by unanimous decision.
AH: I agree with this being the most difficult fight to pick on the card. I must also add that I am just as excited for this one as I am for any fight on the card. Henderson earned the nickname "Bendo" because he is so hard to submit, but he has also never dealt with a BJJ wiz quite like Bocek. Bocek is as tough as they come on the ground, but can he hang with Henderson in the striking department? So many questions. I see Henderson being able to keep this one standing en route to a victory.
Prediction: Henderson by unanimous decision.
Chad’s undercard picks:
Rory MacDonald def. Nate Diaz
Jake Ellenberger def. Sean Pierson
Daniel Roberts def. Claude Patrick
Charlie Valencia def. Ivan Menjivar
Jason MacDonald def. Ryan Jensen
John Makdessi def. Kyle Watson
Pablo Garza def. Yves Jabouin
Ariel’s undercard picks:
Rory MacDonald def. Nate Diaz
Jake Ellenberger def. Sean Pierson
Daniel Roberts def. Claude Patrick
Charlie Valencia def. Ivan Menjivar
Jason MacDonald def. Ryan Jensen
John Makdessi def. Kyle Watson
Yves Jabouin def. Pablo Garza
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