COMMENTARY

By Ken Rosenthal

updated 1:10 a.m. ET March 1, 2004

No longer should anyone believe a word out of the mouth of Alex "Captain" Rodriguez.

His stated desire to stay with the Rangers was as comical as the Rangers' stated desire to keep him. And if you believe A-Rod will be content moving from shortstop to third base with the Yankees, you probably think Jack Nicholson would be willing to accept second billing to Ben Affleck.

On the occasion of one of the biggest trades in major league history -- Rodriguez for second baseman Alfonso Soriano and a player to be named -- at least certain truths are self-evident:
Now that Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter are Yankee teammates, will Rodriguez play third base, or push for Jeter to make room for him at shortstop?

A-Rod will be shortstop
It's not a question of if, but when. Manager Joe Torre might never move Derek Jeter, but who's to say Torre's replacement wouldn't? Jeter eventually will end up at third base -- or better yet, second. Rodriguez is a far superior defensive shortstop, and it would be counterproductive for him to abandon the position at age 28 to accommodate a lesser fielder, albeit one who has led the Yankees to four World Series titles.

Jeter, 29, suffered in the field last season after dislocating his left shoulder on opening day, but his decline preceded his injury. He has ranked last among qualifying American League shortstops for five consecutive seasons in range factor, the average number of plays a fielder makes in a nine-inning game.

Like most defensive stats, range factor can be misleading, especially because the Yankees' pitching staff typically ranks high in strikeouts and low in ground balls. But Jeter also has been last or next to last in zone rating -- an estimate of a player's efficiency fielding balls hit into his typical defensive zone -- in each of the past four seasons.

Rodriguez's defense, meanwhile, rivals his offense. He led A.L. shortstops in fielding percentage last season, though he declined in range factor and zone rating from 2002, perhaps because of a herniated disk that he endured for much of the season. In previous seasons, he was among the leaders in both categories.

One of Rodriguez's idols, Cal Ripken, moved from shortstop to third without difficulty but didn't make the switch until he was 36. The Yankees will have a hole at second or third no matter what they do. With Jeter at second, they would be stronger up the middle than they were with Jeter and Soriano. And they still would have the same cast of characters -- Miguel Cairo, Mike Lamb and Co. -- at third.

Jeter surely doesn't want to move, but his defense will be under immense and unpleasant scrutiny if the Yankees keep him at short. Rodriguez politicked his way out of Texas; it's easy to imagine him politicking for his old position and dividing the clubhouse. Better for Jeter to accept his fate and play the role of selfless teammate.

Who's on second?
Several of the team's earlier third base options are now second base options after the trade for Alex Rodriguez. Enrique Wilson might be solid in the field, but his hitting won't scare many pitchers. Miguel Cairo has the most experience as a starter, but he hasn't played the position regularly since 2000 with the Devil Rays. Erick Almonte, Tyler Houston, Mike Lamb and Homer Bush also are in the mix. Bush is the most experienced of that group.

If the Yankees sign free-agent first baseman Travis Lee and make Jason Giambi a DH, their infield defense no longer would be a liability. It would be a strength.

Another advantage in moving Jeter to second is that it eventually might be easier for the Yankees to upgrade at third. The Dodgers' Adrian Beltre, the A's Eric Chavez, the Angels' Troy Glaus and the Twins' Corey Koskie are among the third basemen eligible to become free agents after this season. The Yankees could trade for one of them at midseason or sign one next winter.

The Red Sox blew it
You already can hear The Nation moaning, "There's no defeating the Evil Empire. They've got too much money. They always get their man."

Absurd.

The Sox's attempt to acquire Rodriguez for outfielder Manny Ramirez and pitching prospect Jon Lester began falling apart when the players union rejected a restructuring of Rodriguez's contract that reportedly would have reduced its value by $4 million a year. But the deal could have been revived when Rangers owner Tom Hicks made a last-minute concession, dropping his demand for cash as part of the trade.

The difference between Ramirez's and Rodriguez's contracts would have cost the Sox an additional $81.5 million over the next seven years -- or $11.6 million per season, hardly an insignificant figure. That price, however, also reflected the value of keeping Rodriguez away from the Yankees, the only other team to which he was willing to approve a trade.

The Yankees might have made a run at Rodriguez even if third baseman Aaron Boone had not suffered his major knee injury; owner George Steinbrenner is not one to ignore a chance to acquire the best player in the game. And with the Rangers assuming $67 million of the $179 million remaining on Rodriguez's contract, the Yankees will pay A-Rod an average of $16 million per season -- less than what Blue Jays first baseman Carlos Delgado and, ahem, Ramirez will make in '04.

Now the Sox are in a bind. With Rodriguez no longer available, they need to sign shortstop Nomar Garciaparra long-term -- and Garciaparra might prefer to leave as a free agent at the end of the season rather than take advantage of his newfound leverage. The Sox then could turn to other potential free-agent shortstops, such as the Cardinals' Edgar Renteria or the Expos' Orlando Cabrera.

Another way to counter the Yankees' latest escalation of this offseason's arms race is to trade for Cardinals first baseman Albert Pujols, who appears increasingly unlikely to sign long-term in St. Louis.

A-Rod will struggle for acceptance in New York
Sure, Rodriguez was born in New York, but so was Bobby Bonilla, who became a villain with the Mets. If there's one thing New Yorkers won't tolerate, it's a phony. Rodriguez is a solid citizen who plays hard every day, but he's a threat to Jeter, the most popular Yankee. And if he is as manipulative in New York as he was in Texas, the media will crucify him.

Three weeks before his trade to the Yankees, Rodriguez seemed to settle his differences in a five-hour meeting with Rangers officials, even accepting the honor of team captain. "I feel a grand responsibility, not only to the Texas Rangers, but to our fans," he said then. "I feel very good about our plan as we move forward."

Sure he did.

Even on the field, Rodriguez will face a difficult transition. He's moving from The Ballpark in Arlington, one of the best hitters parks in the A.L., to Yankee Stadium, a neutral park with challenging dimensions for righthanded hitters.

During the past three seasons, Rodriguez's on-base/slugging percentage was 1.082 at home, .939 on the road; Soriano's OPS was .771 at home, .889 on the road. Soriano had a higher road OPS than Rodriguez in 2002 and better road numbers in each Triple Crown category last season over 55 more at-bats. Soriano's 2003 season was considered a disappointment. Rodriguez was named A.L. Most Valuable Player.

Rodriguez will form a devastating middle of the order with Giambi and right fielder Gary Sheffield. However, Rodriguez expanded his strike zone with men on base last season, batting only .276 with runners in scoring position. Giambi occasionally is booed at Yankee Stadium. The expectations on Rodriguez will be even higher, and in New York every wart is exposed.

The Rangers will be better off
They can't be any worse, can they? The subtractions of Rodriguez and Rafael Palmeiro will increase the pressure on their young hitters, but Soriano, Hank Blalock and Mark Teixeira are three of the best in the game. And while Hicks is cutting payroll, the Rangers' newfound flexibility will enable them to be players in next year's free-agent market, which is deep in starting pitching.

Soriano could end up in center field, where his athletic ability wouldn't be as restricted as it is at second base. On the other hand, few second basemen hit like Soriano, and he could put up monster numbers in Arlington. If he plays reasonably consistent defense -- one baseball publication's measure of fielding performance shows he has improved to the point where he is now average -- he would be more of an asset at second.

Either way, Michael Young likely will move from second to shortstop, with Eric Young playing second if Soriano is in center. Laynce Nix will play center if Soriano is at second, but he's more of a corner outfielder. The lineup will be less experienced but no less talented. Michael Young is developing into a potent offensive player, and Nix showed potential as a rookie last season.

As for pitching, the Rangers know they will face continued difficulty attracting free agents, but next year's class should be deep enough for Texas to make an impact. Kerry Wood, a native of Irving, Texas, likely will be the Rangers' primary target if he doesn't re-sign with the Cubs. The list of other potential free agents is imposing: Pedro Martinez, Derek Lowe and Kevin Millwood; Matt Morris, Freddy Garcia and Odalis Perez; Russ Ortiz, Brad Radke, Eric Milton and Matt Clement.

The Yankees are no lock
Potential conflicts include Steinbrenner-Torre, Jeter-Rodriguez and Bernie Williams-Kenny Lofton, not to mention Kevin Brown vs. the disabled list and Sheffield vs. the world. Even with a potentially disgruntled Garciaparra and a nutty Ramirez, the Red Sox could be The Waltons by comparison.

How long before A-Rod wants out?

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