Tony DeMarco

PHOENIX - For nearly five months, the San Diego Padres defied expectation with mostly inexperienced but dominant starting pitching, the majors' best bullpen and an uncanny knack for winning close, low-scoring games.

The numbers told us why it was happening, but it was hard not to shake your head and wonder how, anyway.

The Padres' pitching and defense were so good, they have built a huge run differential — among the best in the National League — despite being nearly last in the league in runs scored. That's really hard to do. And it's because they've allowed 40-plus fewer runs than any other NL team.

But in the past week, it's all unraveling.

Suddenly, a team that hadn't lost more than three games in a row since mid-May finds itself in a belief-testing, 10-game tailspin. A National League West lead that grew to 6 1/2 games is down to a precarious 1 game. And you can't help but wonder if what we were watching all season wasn't a mirage.

You won't get any of that from the manager's office, of course. It's hard to find a cooler, more level-headed leader than Bud Black. There are no tantrums or overturned postgame spreads from him. He answers pre- and postgame questions analytically, not testily. He did get tossed from Tuesday's game for questioning a sixth-inning call at first base, but joked about it the next day by saying, "I'm going to try to go nine (innings) today."

But Black can't deny the obvious, either.

"Nothing is really going our way right now," he said Wednesday. "That's how it goes in a long season. Like all teams, eventually we'll spin out of it.''

“Eventually” being the key word, as the season has reached its final stretch. Where the Padres go from here is anybody's guess. But their seven-game losing streak has set up these comparisons:

The last team to lose seven consecutive games and remain in first place this late in a season was the 2006 St. Louis Cardinals. In case you've forgotten, the Cardinals lost seven in a row in late September, then won the World Series.

However, the 1995 Los Angeles Angels lost eight in a row in September, and were beaten by the Seattle Mariners in a play-in game. And Black and the Padres know all about play-in game losses, as three Octobers ago, they were victimized by the Colorado Rockies' miraculous 20-1 run to the World Series.

At least the schedule turns in the Padres' favor, having started a 10-game homestand against NL West rivals Colorado, Los Angeles and San Francisco on Friday. The Padres are 38-29 at home.

They do have seven games remaining against the second-place Giants — including a season-ending, three-game series in San Francisco — but have owned them this season, winning seven of nine games. So although the Padres recently lost their place as the winningest team in the NL, they remain the team to beat in the West.

But three losses here to the last-place Diamondbacks — a team that has allowed an astounding 251 more runs than the Padres this season — contained all that used to go right but suddenly has turned wrong.

The five-man rotation of Mat Latos, Jon Garland, Clayton Richard, Wade LeBlanc and Kevin Correia has missed only two starts all season. But cracks are emerging. LeBlanc (8-12) was knocked around in Monday's loss, and was 3-3 with a 6.47 ERA in six August starts, jumping his season ERA to 4.15.

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Correia (10-10) wasn't any better in Wednesday's 7-4 loss, allowing five runs in 4 1.3 innings on the heels of giving up nine in 3 1/3 innings in his previous start. He hasn't lasted more than 6 1/3 innings in any of his past seven starts, and has totalled only 37 2/3 innings.

The problem is, there aren't many other quality options for Black. The Padres didn't succeed in an attempt to add a veteran starting pitcher through a deal, so they will turn Friday to the major league debut of 2007 top pick Cory Luebke. It could be a one-start thing, or the 25-year-old left-hander could pitch his way into more starts either to replace LeBlanc or Correia, or as a sixth starter to ease the innings burden on everybody.