What’s it going to take to topple mighty SEC?
As conference eyes 5th straight BCS title, others need a plan — here's help
Charles Krupa / APJim Tressel's Ohio State Buckeyes are ranked No. 2 entering the season and figure to have as good a shot as anyone to end the SEC's run of BCS championships. But Ohio State has lost two of the last four title games to, you guessed it, SEC teams.
Serve a few cupcakes
You’ve got to love games such as Ohio State-Miami and Oklahoma-Florida State.
But if you intend to compete for a national title, those matchups might be your undoing.
For all its success, SEC football is traditionally criticized for lack of quality in non-conference scheduling (although there are nice matchups this season with Alabama-Penn State, Auburn-Clemson, LSU-North Carolina and Tennessee-Oregon).
The SEC's argument is that its teams already play a tough conference schedule. Point noted. But other conferences will also soon be able to claim more difficult set-in-stone slates thanks to the realignment wave.
Florida, particularly, has set a comfortable non-conference pace. The Gators haven’t left their home state for a non-conference game since losing at Syracuse in 1991.
For the record, here are the non-conference schedules for the past four SEC national-championship teams (Florida has played Florida State each season since 1958 and shouldn't be faulted for the Seminoles' recent slide).
- Florida (2006) — Southern Miss, Central Florida, Western Carolina, Florida State.
- LSU (2007) — Virginia Tech, Middle Tennessee, Tulane, Louisiana Tech.
- Florida (2008) — Hawaii, Miami, The Citadel, Florida State.
- Alabama (2009) — Virginia Tech, Florida International, North Texas, Chattanooga.
So who does this season's favorite play out of conference?
Although Alabama should be credited for welcoming Joe Paterno and Penn State to Tuscaloosa, does anyone think San Jose State, Duke and Georgia State (not to be confused with Georgia or Georgia Tech) will get anything more than a big payday and some bumps and bruises when they meet?
Round up the suspects
OK, full disclosure.
Like just about everyone, I selected Alabama as the preseason No. 1 team. So I’m picking the Crimson Tide to repeat as national champions. It’s easy to visualize the scene: “Rammer Jammer Yellow Hammer’’ reverberating around the climate controlled walls of the University of Phoenix Stadium at Glendale, Ariz., adding the exclamation point to yet another SEC title in January.
But what if it doesn’t happen?
Even if the steps presented aren't quickly adopted, the SEC’s title run will end one of these seasons. Remember, upsets happen. What if it’s now?
The formula we laid out speaks to long-term solutions to combat SEC dominance. If Alabama or Florida (or someone else?) can’t get it done this season, who are prime candidates to raise the crystal football in Glendale?
My five scenarios (in order of likelihood):
- Ohio State: Pound for pound, the Buckeyes are the nation’s second-most impressive looking team this season. Quarterback Terrelle Pryor can be a difference-making catalyst. The defense returns seven starters for Jim Tressel (94-21 in nine seasons). Ohio State no longer must consider Michigan as its ultimate proving ground. But there are rigorous challenges on the schedule (Miami in a non-conference home game, plus Big Ten trips to Wisconsin and Iowa).
- Non-BCS teams: TCU (from the Mountain West) and Boise State (from the WAC) have very legitimate programs and very legitimate chances to go all the way. Both must make big splashes in key non-conference games at neutral sites. TCU gets Oregon State at the Cowboys’ new stadium Saturday, while Heisman hopeful quarterback Kellen Moore and Boise State face Virginia Tech in Landover, Md. on Labor Day. Those games alone might be just enough of a springboard.
- Oklahoma (and maybe Texas): There have been a half-dozen recent seasons where you could practically pencil the Oklahoma-Texas winner into the BCS title game. This might be one of them. I like Oklahoma’s chances, primarily because of a more forgiving schedule in the Big 12 (Texas must go to Nebraska, while Oklahoma avoids the Cornhuskers altogether). The Sooners are perfectly positioned to sneak up on everyone because they lost two prime-time players (Sam Bradford, Gerald McCoy) in the NFL draft’s first three picks. But don’t be fooled. Oklahoma is ready for a title run.
- Miami: Clearly, this is the best Hurricanes team in at least five years. Both coordinators have returned for the first time since 2005 (gee, there’s a dandy indicator of Miami’s recent regression). Quarterback Jacory Harris is the real deal and the defense looks ferocious. The talent level and depth have returned to Miami-like levels. The Hurricanes must capture the ACC, but they can grab national attention with early road victories at Ohio State (the Big Ten favorite) and Pittsburgh (the Big East favorite).
- Oregon: Yes, we know the Ducks dismissed their starting quarterback (Jeremiah Masoli) before the spring drills. But Oregon is loaded. Darron Thomas, who beat out fifth-year senior Nate Costa, is a capable leader at QB and the defense is ultra-quick. And the Pac-10 has a whole new outlook with USC on probation. So the Ducks are more than capable of a BCS title game appearance.
They will all be in the hunt.
But as we have learned, it takes a lot of luck and pluck to rise above the best league in the land.
SEC! SEC! SEC! SEC!
SEC?
Time will tell.
Joey Johnston writes regularly for NBCSports.com and is a columnist for the Tampa (Fla.) Tribune.
![]()
advertisement
More newsCFT: Stabbed to death following an altercation at a school-sponsored dance in October 2009, Jasper Howard‘s parents are seeking significant financial compensation for the parties they believe are at least partly responsible.
