The Tide returns its starting quarterback (Greg McElroy), its Heisman Trophy winning tailback (Mark Ingram; he'll miss the opener with a knee injury), a sophomore running back who many observers believe is even better than Ingram (Trent Richardson) and five of the top six receivers.

Sure, there are a number of holes to fill on defense. But Alabama has been loading up on quality defensive recruits the past three years, and defense is Saban’s specialty. Plus, keep in mind that the Tide ranked second in the nation last season in fewest points allowed (11.7 per game) and yards allowed (244.1). Even if the defense slips a little this season, it probably still will be ranked in the Top 10 nationally, which is good enough to win a championship.

In addition, it usually is safe to predict that the winner of the SEC will be one of the two teams in the national championship game. That’s been the case each of the past four seasons and five of the past seven. It would have been six of the past seven if an undefeated Auburn team in 2004 hadn’t been stuck behind undefeated USC and Oklahoma and gotten shut out of the title game.

So operating under the theory that the SEC winner will advance to the championship game, who in the conference is going to knock off the Tide? Alabama’s biggest rival the past two years has been Florida, but the Gators are without Tim Tebow, the defense might take a bit of a step backwards and it’s hard to figure out what’s going on with Urban Meyer these days. He’s starting to make Saban look calm and reasoned.

Last year, when Florida was the SEC’s preseason favorite, everybody had the Tide close in the Gators’ rearview mirror. There was a sense that if Florida slipped up a just a bit, Alabama was poised to pounce. Sure enough, a 12-0 regular season was not enough to get the Gators into the BCS championship game as the also-undefeated Tide rolled in the SEC title game.

This year, the feeling about Florida in terms of pursuing the Tide is not quite the same. Alabama doesn’t have to be perfect to be better than the Gators. The Tide could stumble once, the thinking goes, and still win the SEC. That simply was not the case last year for the Gators.

Timeline Alabama’s road to BCS championship Take a game-by-game look back at the Crimson Tide's undefeated season.

Outside of Florida, the rest of the teams in the conference also have their flaws. Georgia has had internal turmoil and always seems to come up just short. Even LSU fans don’t seem to have much confidence in coach Les Miles. Auburn and Arkansas might challenge Alabama eventually, but still look to be a year away. Spurrier seems to be spinning his wheels at South Carolina. Tennessee has a new coach, and Ole Miss is, well, Ole Miss.

No, the SEC is Alabama’s to lose, and losing is one thing Saban hasn’t done much of lately. It is probably safe to go ahead and pencil the Tide into the BCS title game, at which point they will have at least a 50-50 chance of repeating as national champions. Or whatever Saban wants to call it.

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