Tony DeMarco

ANAHEIM, Calif. - Now that we know the National League pennant winner finally will have home-field advantage in the World Series — thank you very much, Brian McCann — it's time to take a stab at who the Fall Classic combatants will be.

One look at the NL standings tells you there are no certainties for any of the four playoff spots. No division lead larger than four games, nine teams within 4 1/2 games of the top, and six wild-card contenders within two games of each other.

The first-half run differentials don't clear up the picture much, either: San Diego +72, Atlanta +69, San Francisco +61, St. Louis +59, New York +49, Philadelphia +48, Colorado +45, Cincinnati +45, Los Angeles +30.

McCann's Braves are in the best position — with a four-game lead over the Mets, and 4 1/2 games over the two-time defending champion Phillies, who nobody is counting out. And the Braves got there with little help from one of their best starting pitchers — Jair Jurrjens, who is back in their rotation after time on the disabled list.

There also is real urgency and focus on getting Bobby Cox to the postseason one more time — as Thursday's Alex Gonzalez-for-Yunel Escobar/JoJo Reyes deal shows. Gonzalez is a bat the Braves' offense needs, and more help is coming.

Rookie of the Year candidate Jason Heyward's All-Star Game batting practice sessions showed he's ready to come off the DL with impact as the second half begins. There also could a move for a center fielder to squeeze out struggling Nate McLouth.

The Mets' chances are tied to adding a quality starting pitcher and the return of Carlos Beltran. But the bigger challenge is expected from the Phillies, who won four in a row before the break, and have more reason to expect improvement from within as their disabled list thins.

The Braves and Phillies will meet six times in the final 12 days of the season, probably to decide a division winner. The pick: Atlanta.

The Reds and Cardinals are tied in the loss column in the Central after the former dropped four straight heading into the break. But if you can isolate a clear advantage in a wild-card race, it lies with these two teams.

Both will play a significant number of games against the four non-contenders in the Central, while the East and West teams probably will be beating up on each other down the stretch.

Here's the striking breakdown of remaining games against teams with .500-plus records: Cincinnati 25, St. Louis 32, New York 36, Atlanta 37, Philadelphia 39, San Diego 41, San Francisco 47, Colorado 48, Los Angeles 58.

The pick: Cincinnati, with St. Louis as the wild card.

It's a four-team scramble in the West, with the Padres finally showing signs of wear-and-tear, and the recent awakening of the league's sleeping giant, the Colorado Rockies.

The Padres long ago got sick of being termed “surprising.” As their star Adrian Gonzalez repeated during the All-Star festivities, “We had talent last year, too; people just weren't paying attention.”

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The Padres’ strength lies in their young starting pitchers, who will have to slow down innings-wise down the stretch. Top setup man Mike Adams also strained his oblique just before the break — and that's the problem with a $38 million payroll; a key injury or two is potentially deadly.

Meanwhile, the Rockies are on the other side of the injury equation. Closer Huston Street has come off the DL, saved four games and looks fully healthy.

Jorge DeLaRosa — a 19-game winner from last June 1 until he went on the disabled list in late April — returned to the rotation Friday. They also could get a bullpen boost from Taylor Buchholz coming back after surgery.

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All-Star Troy Tulowitzki (broken wrist bone) should be back by early August, and as strange as it sounds, the Rockies might be better off with Todd Helton sidelined by a chronic back problem that has robbed him of his power, and could end his career prematurely.

The nagging question of how long do they stick with a struggling Helton has been removed, and manager Jim Tracy effectively has been juggling a rejuvenated Jason Giambi, Melvin Mora and journeyman Brad Eldred at first base. But expect another bat soon — possibly Dan Uggla, who could play second until Tulowitzki returns, then shift to first.

Pick: Given the Rockies' penchant for strong finishes, they are the choice to emerge in the West, and the NL.