PASCAL PAVANI / AFP - Getty Images

Spain's Alberto Contador, left, rides alongside former teammate and Tour rival Lance Armstrong during the sixth stage on Friday.

ANALYSIS

By Bill Strickland

updated 5:32 p.m. ET July 9, 2010

Friday’s Stage 6 sprint ended the first week of the Tour de France (counting the prologue time trial, which isn’t officially termed a stage because of its short length, there have been seven days of racing). Mark Cavendish won — his second in a row — and once again the contenders maintained their positions in the overall standings relative to each other.

This means that, as I predicted yesterday, Lance Armstrong goes into the mountains with the worst standing he’s ever had since he began winning Tours.

After the first week of racing in his seven victories and in last year’s third-place finish, Armstrong has been behind the other eventual podium finishers only twice: Once by just seven seconds, and once by 46 seconds. This year he’s 1:51 behind Cadel Evans, 1:21 behind Andy Schleck, 50 seconds behind Alberto Contador, and 41 seconds behind Denis Menchov and Bradley Wiggins.

It’s not hard to figure out what Armstrong’s position means: He has to attack in the mountains.

The climbing technically kicks off Saturday with Stage 7; the course isn’t considered difficult enough to rate as an explosive climbing stage — the kind that can obliterate the field and upend the standings.

But it has enough lumps that Armstrong might be tempted to instruct his RadioShack team to begin attacking early in the day in a bid to make the 165.5-km course hard enough to wear down some of his rivals so he might escape for a time gain on the final, 14-km climb to the finish.

Such tactics can be especially effective on the first day in the mountains because the sudden switch from flat stages to multiple ascents traditionally plays havoc with some of the riders’ legs, an unpredictable and frustrating physical malaise that leads to a devastating off-day known among the riders as a jour sans (literally, a “day without”).

More likely is that attacks and counterattacks among the contenders will come Sunday, Tuesday or Wednesday. (Monday is a rest day.) Sunday, Stage 8, has two Category 1 climbs, including the one the race finishes atop. (Climbs are rated from the easiest Category 4 to Category 1, although the most difficult are labeled Hors Categorie—beyond the ability to be categorized.)

Tuesday scales two Category 1 climbs and the HC Col de la Madeleine, and on the final day in the Alps, Wednesday, the race goes over the Category 1 Cote de Laffrey and features especially narrow, twisting descents—including the final descent of La Rochette where in 2003 Armstrong famously rode through a field to avoid crashing into Joseba Beloki, then jumped a ditch and calmly rejoined the peloton as it streamed down the mountainside.

Evans, with the best overall time of the contenders, will probably be content to simply follow the attacks in the Alps and try to preserve as much of his lead as he can going into the Tour’s third week assault on the Pyrenees.

Contador has openly said he thinks the Tour will be decided in the Pyrenees rather than the Alps, so look for him to be more watchful than aggressive. (He will, however, launch several probing attacks, if only to gauge his rivals’ fitness, and he gets a gap he will extend it.)

Schleck must attack in the next few days. He’s the worst time trialist of all the contenders (and besides Contador the most gifted climber), and knows that in the mountains he must gain as much time as possible to offset his inevitable losses in the Stage 19 time trial that comes just one day before the Tour’s end.

Wiggins, in only his second year as a contender (he was fourth last year) is an unknown. Menchov is a patient strategist, and probably the weakest of the contenders, so he seems likely to wait for the others to sort themselves out before making a bid in the Pyrenees.

Both Schleck and Evans have said that Armstrong is stronger than most people know, and they expect him to attack in the Alps. Schleck has told reporters he doesn’t “see Evans sticking with the leaders.” Contador has been presenting a placid, unperturbed front, only saying things like, “The differences are not insurmountable yet.”

For his part in the buildup to the fireworks in the Alps and the much-anticipated showdown between himself and Contador, Armstrong told reporters something uncharacteristically understated: "I think we’re both tired of the drama, and just looking forward to the next two weeks of seeing who is the best man this year."

I take that as a sign that he’s going to attack hard. Publicly, Armstrong was similarly low-key last year in the buildup to the Tour’s entry into the Alps (which didn’t happen until Stage 15).

But that morning, when I saw him at the team bus, as I write in my chronicle of that year, Tour de Lance, “He is kind of jumpy, juking his shoulders around, bobbing his head a little. He rubs his hands together. He is smiling, and his eyes are operating with a kind of long-running focus. They seize on something and concentrate on it, and even swivel a bit to remain fixed after he’s started turning his head to look at something else.” We talked a bit, and he said to me, “This one is for all the f------ marbles.”

He was right. On the climb to Verbier, Contador broke away from everyone and took control of the yellow jersey for good. This year Armstrong knows he’s behind more marbles than ever, and it’s a good bet that he’ll try take some back starting Saturday.

2010 ARMSTRONG-CONTADOR RIVALRY REPORT

Time Advantage after Stage 6
Contador (50 seconds ahead)

Tactical Advantage in Stage 6
None

Skirmish Victories
Armstrong: 3 (5-second gap in prologue; stays out of trouble in Stage 1 & Stage 2 crashes)

Contador: 4 (stays out of trouble in Stage 1 & Stage 2 crashes; finishes cobbles without mishap; exhibits gamesmanship by showing up at RadioShack bus before Stage 5 to give Bruyneel and Armstrong ceremonial watches he’d previously handed out to everyone else on last year’s team in honor of his victory)

Overall
Contador