Sutter, Gossage, Smith
should be in Hall
Despite Eckersley's election,
relief pitchers get short shrift
![]() Ted Mathias / AP Ex-Oakland pitcher Dennis Eckersley and Paul Molitor headline the 15 newcomers on baseball's Hall of Fame ballot. The results will be announced Jan. 6. |
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The Baseball Writers Association of America spared Dennis Eckersley their bias against relief pitchers by voting him into the Hall of Fame, but it says here that three other closers deserve to be enshrined in Cooperstown: Bruce Sutter, Rich Gossage and Lee Smith.
Personally, I’ve filled in the boxes for Sutter and Gossage for the last couple of years, as both dominated their craft in different ways, but held off on Smith last year.
Sutter’s candidacy is going the way of Rice’s. He didn’t get more than 31 percent of the votes in his first six years, but has been in the low-50-percent range the last two years. Gossage has been in the low-40-percent range the last three years, tying Smith last year at 42 percent. But all three faced an impossible task this year with Eckersley on the ballot, so we can have this debate next year.
The fact that Sutter (11th year) and Goose Gossage (fifth year) remain longshots to enter the Hall, and all-time save leader Smith got only 42 percent of the votes in his first try last year, tells you there is a bias against relievers. You’ve heard the arguments: they only pitch 70 or so innings a year, one inning every other day, etc.
That didn't hurt Eckersley — just as will the bias some voters have against first-time eligible candidates, preferring to bestow only a very select few with that honor. You could make the argument that his string of accomplishments as a closer — an MVP, a Cy Young, four 40-plus save seasons, an 0.61 ERA in 1990 — were enough. Let alone the 20-win season, no-hitter and 151 wins in 11 seasons as a starter before he reinvented himself.
It says here that with 197 wins and 390 saves, Eck deserved it.
As a member of the 3,000-hit club, Molitor (3,319 to be exact) was a lock. After all, every other 3,000-hit club member is in, including long-time Milwaukee teammate Robin Yount, who got in on the first try on a star-studded 1998 ballot that included Nolan Ryan and George Brett. If you put Molitor up against the game’s third baseman (he played about 30 percent of his games there), he would rank first all-time in at-bats, hits, runs and stolen bases.
The voters thus elected a player who spent a substantial portion of his career as a designated hitter. In fact, in the latter half of his career — when he predominantly served as a DH — Molitor racked up four of his top five highest single-season games played totals.
In Molitor’s defense, how many Hall of Famers moved between second base, third base and the outfield? Answer: None, as long as Peter Edward Rose’s name doesn’t appear on the ballot. And Molitor remained a top-notch base-runner right to the end, so it’s says here that he goes in, too.
A total of 32 names appeared this time — 15 first-timers, 17 we’ve seen before. Now that Jim Kaat has been turned over to the Veterans Committee, there were no last-chance hopefuls — those in their 15th and final writers ballot appearance. So let’s run through the list, keeping in mind that it takes at least 75 percent of roughly 500 voters (or about 375) to agree, and that’s never easy.
Other, more accomplished first-timers who don’t have the necessary long-term career credentials included Jimmy Key (186-117), Kevin Mitchell (234 homers), Randy Myers (347 saves), Terry Pendleton (an MVP but a .270 lifetime average) and Dave Stieb (176 wins, a no-hitter and five one-hitters).
Cecil Fielder shares the major-league record with three consecutive RBI titles, but a .255 career average and 319 homers won’t cut it. Dennis Martinez won 245 games spread out over 23 seasons and has a perfect game to his credit, but that’s not enough. And Joe Carter has an unforgettable World Series moment, 396 homers and 1,445 RBI, but a .259 average will shoot him down.
As to the rest of the ballot, where the voting got tougher and the questions are thornier. There are all sorts of examples of players who started out slowly in the balloting, but eventually got in, like Joe Cronin, Dizzy Dean and Bill Dickey, who each took a minimum of nine years.
Just last year, we saw Gary Carter get in on his sixth try, despite dropping to as low as 33.8 percent in that stellar 1999 voting class. But The Kid climbed from 50 to 65 to 72 percent before his 78 percent total last year.
The breaking point appears to be that 50-percent number. If you can crack it at some point in your candidacy, you have a decent chance to make the jump to the 75 percent minimum. So there should still be hope for some of the remaining candidates, especially Ryne Sandberg, Andre Dawson, Jim Rice and the trio of relievers Sutter, Gossage and Smith.
Sandberg debuted at 49 percent last year, and many thought it would be higher. His numbers (.285 average, 282 homers) put him in the top handful of second baseman all-time, he holds the record for homers as a second baseman (277), and he won 10 Gold Gloves. That’s good enough for this vote, but Ryno will have to make a big 26-percent leap to make it this year.
Dawson will try for a third time after reaching percentages of 45 and 50 the last two years. That likely has him on track to get in at some point, even though his .279 career batting average and 438 homers are borderline-at-best numbers for an outfielder.
Rice has been in the 50-percent range for the last four years after averaging 35 percent in his first five years on the ballot, so it looks promising for him in the next couple of years. But it says here that a slugger needs more than 382 career homers to get in, no matter how scary he was to American League pitchers from the mid-1970s to the mid-1980s.
On another note, if you can’t crack the 50 percent barrier at some point, you’ve got next to no chance down the road. Despite 283 wins and 16 Gold Gloves, Kaat never received more than 29 percent of the votes, and had been stuck in the 20-percent range for the last decade. Steve Garvey has finished in the 40-percent range three times in 11 tries, but none in the last five years, and was at an all-time low 27.8 percent last year.
This was Bert Blyleven’s seventh try, and the good news is his percentage has risen in each of the last four years. But the bad news is his high total was 29.2 percent in 2003. Personally, I think 287 wins, and the fifth-highest strikeout total, eighth-most starts total and ninth-best shutouts total are enough. But most voters disagree.
It’s the same story with Tommy John. In eight tries, John’s high was 28.4 percent in 2001. But that was down to 23.4 percent last year. You would think that with 300-game winners likely becoming rarer as time goes by and offensive numbers keep going up, John’s 288 wins look better than they used to. But to date, they’re not enough, and apparently never will be.
Davey Concepcion appears to be headed down that same road. His high was 16.9 percent in 1998, and he dipped to 11.1 percent in 2003, his 10th year on the ballot. Ditto Dave Parker, who peaked in 1998 at 24.8 percent, and got only 10.3 percent last year, and Keith Hernandez, who dipped to just 6.7 percent in his eighth try last year.
It’s still relatively early in the candidacies of Don Mattingly (a high of 28.1 percent), Jack Morris (23 percent), Dale Murphy (23 percent) and Alan Trammell (16 percent), but each needs a big spike soon. Fernando Valenzuela got only 6.3 percent last year, and was the last of the 2003 rookies to remain on the ballot.
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