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Logano could surprise with Talladega win

Avoiding the big wreck will be the key in Sunday's Aaron's 499

Image: Joey LoganoGetty Images for NASCAR
In his two career Cup races at Talladega, Joey Logano has finished in the top 10 both times.

11 to 20
No. 42
Juan Pablo Montoya: Montoya has had quality finishes at 'Dega in the past and could surprise with a win this trip to the track. He is driving much better than his place in the point standings. He is a great buy-low candidate.
No. 83 Brian Vickers: Vickers could turn his slow start to the season around this weekend. He won at Talladega in 2006 and has five top-eight finishes in the past eight races at the track.
No. 19 Elliott Sadler: Sadler has three poles and has led at least one lap in the past 14 races at Talladega. He is a decent sleeper pick on Sunday.
No. 39 Ryan Newman: Newman has run well in five of the last six Talladega races. He has the ability to run in the front and is an okay pick this weekend.
No. 18 Kyle Busch: Rowdy has averaged just a 26th-place finish at Talladega during his career. He has won at the speedway, but we expect he won't have enough patience to take the checkers this weekend.
No. 99 Carl Edwards: Edwards has led just 15 laps in 11 career starts at Talladega, and he suffered one of last season's worst wrecks at the track. There are far better tracks to use the 99 car.
No. 17 Matt Kenseth: Kenseth has led just 17 laps in the past six races at Talladega. He will be outside the top 10 when the checkers fly.
No. 12 Brad Keselowski: Keselowski used his front bumper to win last spring's race at 'Dega. He might want to keep an eye on his rearview mirror this weekend.
No. 56 Martin Truex Jr.: Truex Jr. had great cars in four of the past seven races at Talladega. He is a high risk/high reward pick this weekend.
No. 29 Kevin Harvick: Harvick has finished in the top 10 in seven of the last 14 races at Talladega. He will finish outside the top 15 on Sunday.

21 to 30
No. 98
Paul Menard: Menard has run great the past three of the past four 'Dega races. He is a great sleeper pick this weekend.
No. 9 Kasey Kahne: Kahne's average finish at Talladega is 20th. This is a track he would prefer to avoid.
No. 16 Greg Biffle: Biffle's success at Talladega has been very limited. In 14 career Cup starts at the track he has just three finishes better than 13th. His lack of success makes him a risky pick.
No. 5 Mark Martin: Talladega isn't one of Martin's favorite tracks. He will be doing well to crack the top 20 on Sunday.
No. 47 Marcos Ambrose: Ambrose impressed with a fourth-place finish at Talladega last spring. He won't be quite so lucky this weekend.
No. 33 Clint Bowyer: Bowyer has more finishes outside the top 30 than he does inside the top 30 at Talladega during his career. Use him at your own risk.
No. 7 Robby Gordon: Gordon has finished inside the top 20 in nine of the last 14 races at Talladega. He is fearless and isn't a bad option as a fifth fantasy driver on Sunday.

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No. 43 A.J. Allmendinger: Allmendinger has struggled in all of his career starts at 'Dega. There are better options this weekend.

31 to 35
No. 34
Travis Kvapil: Kvapil has had past success at this difficult track. He is a great pick in deep leagues.
No. 37 Robert Richardson Jr.: Rob Jr. is a bit of a Talladega specialist. He is locked into the race and is worth rolling the dice on for those of you in the deepest of leagues.
No. 55 Michael Waltrip: Waltrip has led at least one lap in 19 of the last 21 races at Talladega. He should lead another few laps and could sneak into the top 25 with a little luck.
No. 00 David Reutimann: Reutimann has finished on the lead lap just twice in six Cup starts at 'Dega. His lack of success at the track makes him a poor pick.
No. 77 Sam Hornish Jr.: Hornish Jr. has been garbage at Talladega during his career. Avoid him.

Field Fillers
No. 26 David Stremme
No. 38 Kevin Conway
No. 71 Bobby Labonte
No. 87 Joe Nemechek
No. 13 Max Papis
No. 35 Aric Almirola
No. 66 Dave Blaney
No. 97 Jeff Fuller
No. 09 Mike Bliss
No. 36 Johnny Sauter
No. 46 Terry Cook

Brownie's Picks

Top Four
1. Kurt Busch
2. Denny Hamlin
3. Jimmie Johnson
4. Jeff Gordon

Sleepers
1. Jamie McMurray
2. David Ragan

Bust of the Week
Mark Martin



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