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Modern baseball has become a numbers game

Statistical analysis all the rage, but scouts still have their place in game

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Tulowitzki is very aware of the zone ratings measurment, but says it only goes so far in accurately assessing how effectively a shortstop plays the position.

"Say a ball is hit in the hole (between third and short),'' he said. "Some guys will take an angle that may or may not get them to the ball, knowing that's what they need to do to get the out.

"And some guys will take an angle that will get them to the ball, just so they can get to it, but not have much chance to throw the (runner) out. That makes their rating look better.''

Limiting his choices to NL shortstops, whom he sees most often, Tulowitzki puts Rafael Furcal on the top of his list, and throws in Jimmy Rollins and Yunel Escobar.

"Hanley (Ramirez) could be the best if he really concentrated on it; with his ability,'' Tulowitzki said. "Furcal does everything the right way. He's the smartest. He has a strong arm and he gets to a lot of balls.''

By most measures, Daniels is the new breed of major-league general manager. He's 32, and he's already been on the job four-plus years. Daniels also majored in economics at Cornell, so he knows his way around an algorithm.

Still, he doesn't call himself a big numbers guy. To him, statistical measures are merely pieces of the evaluation puzzle.

"But when the scouts see something that the numbers don't show, that's when you have a chance to find a diamond in the rough,'' he said.

Which is what led the Rangers to two of their emerging young talents — Borbon and shortstop Elvis Andrus.

"Our scouts had gone in there to see (Borbon), and they said, 'hey, he has a chance to be an impact player','' Daniels said. "When we signed Elvis, he didn't grade out well on the numbers.

"But our scouts got around him, spent some time with him, got to know him as a person. Their evaluation was he had the intangibles to make it. When it gets down to it, this is a human business.''

Those words are like music to Mike Paul's ears. Paul, currently a major-league scout for the Colorado Rockies, has been around the game longer than Daniels has been alive.

In his big-league playing days back in the late-1960's to mid-1970s, Paul was a left-hander who posted a 3.91 career ERA with the Indians, Rangers and Cubs. He also spent enough time playing winter ball in Mexico to log more than 1,200 innings there.

Paul says he understands the new-found emphasis on numbers.

"You do hear scouts (complaining) about it,'' he said. "But (front offices) should use them. They even hire guys to interpret them.''

But in Paul's words, "the numbers can never tell you about (a player's) make-up."

"I've been around long enough to know what it takes to win between the lines,'' Paul said. "Give me a guy with (guts) and who knows how to pitch. I'll take him over the guy with more talent who may quit on you.''

Paul says he was asked last winter to report on a player the Rockies had interest in for a backup infield role. His thumbs-down had nothing to do with numbers.

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"(The player) actually graded out high offensively, but he wasn't a very good defensive player,'' Paul said. "And his manager hated him. He didn't want to play sometimes. He took days off.''

The Rockies went in another direction.

Added Zduriencik: "What I've tried to do is look at whatever information is out there. What is the right information? You can sit with numbers guys and they will tell you absolutely this. And you sit with a died-in-the-wool baseball guy, and he will tell you exactly the opposite. Who's right? It depends on what the question is.

"I sincerely believe the game will never replace the great eyes of a scout. I'm amazed over the course of my career about the (scouts) who have put their necks on the line because of what they knew about a player, and they turned out to be right. In the same sense, you have to look at the numbers to confirm things.''

Tony DeMarco is a contributor to NBCSports.com and a freelance writer based in Denver.


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