Mike DeCourcy

It's not the Final Four we were expecting. No Kansas. No Kentucky. No Evan Turner. No Syracuse. No West Coast teams.

Yeah, just checking to see if you were paying attention on that last one.

"I'm proud to represent the Big Ten — that conference that sometimes gets maligned but always seems to have teams in the Final Four," said Michigan State coach Tom Izzo, leaving unsaid that it's almost always his Spartans who make it. "There's nothing greater than going to a Final Four that I know of, except maybe winning it."

It should be a blast when Duke, Michigan State, Butler and West Virginia convene Saturday at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis for the NCAA Tournament semifinals. It always is.

DUKE

Why they will win it: The Devils have the strongest collection of size, skill and perimeter shooting. Jon Scheyer, Nolan Smith, Kyle Singler and Andre Dawkins are 3-point threats. They aren't an extraordinary defensive team, but center Brian Zoubek provides a presence along the baseline that makes it hard for opponents to operate their offenses.

Why they might not: Duke didn't exactly shine when confronted physically by Purdue in the regional semifinals, and West Virginia can bring that kind of physical force complemented by a more potent offense. The Devils don't have an easy time getting post baskets. Their playmaking deficiency could be problematic in situations, but no other Final Four team arrives with a dynamic point guard.

DeCourcy's prediction: NCAA champions

MICHIGAN STATE

Why they will win it: The Spartans are the one team that's been here before. Six members of the Spartans' rotation played double-figure minutes in the 2009 NCAA title game. That experience surely made a difference in the series of tight games — including three by a single possession — that got them here. No team has more players who can get their own shots, and they execute their offense to get good shots.

Special feature Stars to watch in Final Four We spotlight 16 players who will be crucial to their team's title hopes, like Duke's Brian Zoubek. NBCSports.com

Why they won't: Backup point guard Korie Lucious still is a high-risk player. His dawdling near the midcourt line while advancing the ball was costly several times against Tennessee. The Spartans are heavily dependent on jump shots, which can be dangerous at this level. They haven't had to contend with great size in the tournament.

DeCourcy's prediction: Runner-up, again

BUTLER

Why they could win it: Who would have thought the best NBA prospect at the Final Four would belong to the Bulldogs? Forward Gordon Hayward is tall, long, athletic, skilled — everything the league would want in a small forward. And he's a great teammate willing to play inside because he's needed. Butler also might be the tightest defensive outfit of the four — and, man, is that saying something.

Why they won't: In the 24 years of the shot-clock era, the eventual NCAA champion has averaged 87 points in the four games leading up to the Final Four. None has produced fewer than 2003 Syracuse's 71.5 per tournament game. Butler is at 64.3. It just doesn't seem like the offense of a champion.

DeCourcy's prediction: semifinalist

WEST VIRGINIA

Why they could win it: Coach Bob Huggins is willing to change defenses, which keeps opponents off-balance. Forward Devin Ebanks is the best defender in the field, a menace at the top of a 1-3-1 zone or matched against anyone from a point guard to a power forward. Point guard Joe Mazzulla's resurgence gives the Mountaineers a genuine floor leader.

Why they won't: There are lots of guys willing to step forward and make big shots, but it's still an offense that can be short of dependable options beyond Da'Sean Butler. The uncommon 3-point shooting display that subdued Kentucky is unlikely to be repeated.

DeCourcy's prediction: semifinalist

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