Mike Celizic

The Duke Blue Devils don't sneak up on people on the basketball court. Their perennial success always makes them a favorite in every office pool across the country.

But this year might be different. This year, Duke is a No. 1 seed, but few people are talking about the Devils as the team to be feared. Instead of touting their chances at another national title, analysts are touting them as a potential upset victim.

This could be good for the Dukies. For years, they went into March weighed down by expectations. They were like the New York Yankees, judging themselves by a different standard. For most teams, making the Final Four was a dream come true. For Duke, anything less was a disappointing season.

This year, there are no championship expectations stacked on the Blue Devils' shoulders. The analysts have decided that this is a down year for the ACC, and being its champion isn’t the accomplishment it used to be. Kansas, and maybe Syracuse, are the teams to beat. Duke is mentioned in that conversation only to dismiss it. Its five losses are the most of any No. 1 seed.

So, for the first time in a quarter century, the Blue Devils are the team lying in the weeds, the top seed that isn’t getting the respect its ranking would seem to deserve.

Teams like that can do damage. They aren’t burdened by the pressure of championship expectations. Since they’re not expected to win the title, they don’t have to fear losing it.

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And they can play with a chip on their collective shoulder. They’re being dissed with every story about the wonderfulness of Kansas, and you know the players are aware that they’re not at the center of conversation. It lets them go through March muttering, “How dare those writers say we aren’t that good? We’ll show them.”

This is the reward Duke gets for five seasons that for the Devils qualify as mediocre. As North Carolina — nowhere to be seen in this tournament — has gotten the publicity and the championships, Duke has slid into eclipse. It’s not that the Blue Devils are invisible. They’re still one of the top programs in the nation. It’s just that you don’t shake in your boots when you see them on your schedule.

It’s not that Duke is weak. They’re just not what they were, and there are any number of reasons why. For one thing, it’s impossible to continue at the pace that Mike Krzysewski set for the from 1985-86 to 1993-94. In those nine seasons the Blue Devils went to the Final Four seven times, won two championships and finished second three times. Outside of UCLA in the John Wooden years, that’s as good a run as any team is ever going to have.

Things have slowed down since. There was another championship in 2001, but only one more Final Four, in 2004. Since then, Duke hasn’t gotten out of the Sweet 16.

Since Krzyzewski first took Duke to the dance in 1984, he had never gone more than four years between Final Four appearances. But now he’s on a five-year streak during which he hasn’t gotten as far as the Elite Eight.

Maybe it’s the fact that Krzyzewski is 63 and starting to lose his magic touch. Or maybe it’s because he’s devoting so much time to coaching the U.S. National Team. Or maybe it’s just natural for a team to come down off the high Duke was riding. No team can be that good for that long without coming back to earth.

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Whatever the reason, the days when you began the year assuming Duke was going straight to the Final Four are gone, probably forever. The team hasn’t slipped much, but it’s slipped. As the game expands and parity spreads, the number of schools elite recruits will consider expands, and the chances that Duke will get another Naismith Award winner contract.

And now people aren’t taking the Devils as seriously as they used to. They’re not cringing at the thought of having to face Coach K. College basketball thinks it’s moved beyond those feelings.

Yet, there Duke is, sitting atop the rankings as a No. 1 seed and the third overall seed in the tournament, behind only Kansas and Kentucky.

So somebody thinks they’re pretty good, and those somebodies are the same people who pick the tournament field.

Also high on Duke are the respected Sagarin and Pomeroy ratings, which measure how likely teams are to win. Sagarin has Duke second in the nation behind only Kansas. Pomeroy has the Devils first, ahead of Kansas.

So dismiss them if you will, but do so at your own risk.

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